Well-estimated global surface warming in climate projections selected for ENSO phase

J.S. Risbey, Stephan Lewandowsky, C. Langlais, D.P. Monselesan, T.J. O'Kane, Naomi Oreskes

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Abstract

The question of how climate model projections have tracked the actual evolution of global mean surface air temperature is important in establishing the credibility of their projections. Some studies and the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report suggest that the recent 15-year period (1998-2012) provides evidence that models are overestimating current temperature evolution. Such comparisons are not evidence against model trends because they represent only one realization where the decadal natural variability component of the model climate is generally not in phase with observations. We present a more appropriate test of models where only those models with natural variability (represented by El Niño/Southern Oscillation) largely in phase with observations are selected from multi-model ensembles for comparison with observations. These tests show that climate models have provided good estimates of 15-year trends, including for recent periods and for Pacific spatial trend patterns.© 2014 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)835-840
JournalNature Climate Change
Volume4
Issue number9
Early online date20 Jul 2014
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Sep 2014

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El Nino-Southern Oscillation
projection
warming
climate
climate modeling
Southern Oscillation
trend
surface temperature
air temperature
credibility
evidence
air
temperature
comparison
test

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Risbey, J.S. ; Lewandowsky, Stephan ; Langlais, C. ; Monselesan, D.P. ; O'Kane, T.J. ; Oreskes, Naomi. / Well-estimated global surface warming in climate projections selected for ENSO phase. In: Nature Climate Change. 2014 ; Vol. 4, No. 9. pp. 835-840.
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Well-estimated global surface warming in climate projections selected for ENSO phase. / Risbey, J.S.; Lewandowsky, Stephan; Langlais, C.; Monselesan, D.P.; O'Kane, T.J.; Oreskes, Naomi.

In: Nature Climate Change, Vol. 4, No. 9, 09.2014, p. 835-840.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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