U.S. stock prices and macroeconomic fundamentals

A. Black, P. Fraser, Nicolaas Groenewold

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

12 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Using 54 years of US quarterly data and a VAR model underpinned by a theory of therelationship between stock prices and output, this paper considers the deviations ofUS stock prices from their fundamental value. To do this we derive the fundamentalprice-output ratio and the fundamental stock price under different assumptionsregarding the time-variability of returns, and proceed to compare these to actual data.Despite differences between model results, all imply cyclical deviations of actualvalues from values warranted by the expected growth in output - these deviationsbeing relatively large since 1996.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)345-367
JournalInternational review of economics & finance
Volume12
Issue number3
Publication statusPublished - 2003

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