Uncertain Decision Making in Large-scale Projects

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Abstract

Large-scale projects may take considerable time to deliver (years or decades). However, there are decisions to be made in the project front-end phase. Many of such decisions are made subjectively or intuitively. This is because structuring this decision-making process can become too complex. Decisions for the distant future need to take into consideration several events that are likely to happen in the future, each of which may dramatically change such decisions. Considering several events may result in tens or hundreds of future possible scenarios, including the occurrence of the events and their combinations. This hinders structuring the decision-making process. The literature provides approaches to handle uncertain reasoning. However, the approaches suggested in the literature are insufficient to handle such complex problems. This paper suggests the development of a version of a recently proposed approach, namely the stratified approach, to address such complicated problems. This paper contributes to the literature through the development of a novel approach to handle uncertain reasoning. Furthermore, the paper also has a practical value as it introduces a novel platform to support decision making in highly uncertain environments. The proposed approach is illustrated on a complex project by the Australian Government to procure twelve Attack-class submarines.
Original languageEnglish
JournalAcademy of Management Proceedings
Volume2023
Issue number1
Early online date24 Jul 2023
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Aug 2023
Externally publishedYes

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