The resource curse, commodity prices and economic growth

David I. Harvey, Neil M. Kellard, Jakob B. Madsen, Mark E. Wohar

Research output: Chapter in Book/Conference paperChapterpeer-review

Abstract

The direction of trend in relative commodity prices has implications for many developing country growth rates. To assess causal underpinnings we create ultra-long aggregate series shaped by common factors. Tests show that series present a downward trend over the entire sample which can be broken into four regimes of predominantly increasing decline: 1650-1820, 1821-1872, 1873-1946 and 1947-2010. We argue factors like technology are commensurate with this structure. Finally, we suggest the trend in economic activity proxies for such factors and show a negative relationship between trends in commodity prices and World GDP that explains the resource curse.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationGlobal Commodity Markets and Development Economics
EditorsStephan Pfaffenzeller
PublisherRoutledge
Pages16-50
Number of pages35
ISBN (Electronic)9781317483618
ISBN (Print)9781138898257
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jan 2018
Externally publishedYes

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