The resource curse, commodity prices and economic growth

David I. Harvey, Neil M. Kellard, Jakob B. Madsen, Mark E. Wohar

Research output: Chapter in Book/Conference paperChapterpeer-review


The direction of trend in relative commodity prices has implications for many developing country growth rates. To assess causal underpinnings we create ultra-long aggregate series shaped by common factors. Tests show that series present a downward trend over the entire sample which can be broken into four regimes of predominantly increasing decline: 1650-1820, 1821-1872, 1873-1946 and 1947-2010. We argue factors like technology are commensurate with this structure. Finally, we suggest the trend in economic activity proxies for such factors and show a negative relationship between trends in commodity prices and World GDP that explains the resource curse.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationGlobal Commodity Markets and Development Economics
EditorsStephan Pfaffenzeller
Number of pages35
ISBN (Electronic)9781317483618
ISBN (Print)9781138898257
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jan 2018
Externally publishedYes


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