The recidivism of homicide offenders in Western Australia

Roderic Broadhurst, Ross Maller, Max Maller, Brigitte Bouhours

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

Popular perceptions about the recidivism of homicide offenders are contradictory, varying from one extreme – that such offenders rarely commit further violent offences – to the opposite, where it is thought that they remain at a high risk of serious reoffending. The present study draws on the records of 1088 persons arrested in Western Australia over the period 1984–2005 for domestic murders and other types of homicides (robbery and sexual murder), including attempted murder, conspiracy to murder, manslaughter (unintentional homicide) and driving causing death. Our database provides up to 22 years follow-up time (for those arrested in 1984) and accounts critically for the first and any subsequent arrests, if they occur. Of the 1088 persons, only 3 were subsequently arrested and charged with a homicide offence event in the follow-up period. Among those arrested for a murder and subsequently released, we estimate a probability of 0.66 (accounting for censoring) of being rearrested for another offence of any type. The corresponding probabilities for those originally arrested for manslaughter or for driving causing death were equal, at 0.43. A dynamic analysis of the longitudinal data by survival analysis techniques is used to reliably estimate these probabilities. Having a prior record increased the risk of re-arrest; for example male non-Aboriginals arrested for murder with at least one prior arrest have an estimated probability of 0.72 of being rearrested for another offence of any type. Their estimated probability of being rearrested for another serious offence was 0.33. These findings should be of interest to courts and correctional agencies in assessing risk at various stages of the administration of criminal justice.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)395-411
Number of pages17
JournalAustralian and New Zealand Journal of Criminology
Volume51
Issue number3
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Sep 2018

Fingerprint

Western Australia
Homicide
homicide
offender
offense
Criminal Law
death
Survival Analysis
human being
Databases
justice

Cite this

Broadhurst, Roderic ; Maller, Ross ; Maller, Max ; Bouhours, Brigitte. / The recidivism of homicide offenders in Western Australia. In: Australian and New Zealand Journal of Criminology. 2018 ; Vol. 51, No. 3. pp. 395-411.
@article{488de4b9b20d4afeae2c468177087d93,
title = "The recidivism of homicide offenders in Western Australia",
abstract = "Popular perceptions about the recidivism of homicide offenders are contradictory, varying from one extreme – that such offenders rarely commit further violent offences – to the opposite, where it is thought that they remain at a high risk of serious reoffending. The present study draws on the records of 1088 persons arrested in Western Australia over the period 1984–2005 for domestic murders and other types of homicides (robbery and sexual murder), including attempted murder, conspiracy to murder, manslaughter (unintentional homicide) and driving causing death. Our database provides up to 22 years follow-up time (for those arrested in 1984) and accounts critically for the first and any subsequent arrests, if they occur. Of the 1088 persons, only 3 were subsequently arrested and charged with a homicide offence event in the follow-up period. Among those arrested for a murder and subsequently released, we estimate a probability of 0.66 (accounting for censoring) of being rearrested for another offence of any type. The corresponding probabilities for those originally arrested for manslaughter or for driving causing death were equal, at 0.43. A dynamic analysis of the longitudinal data by survival analysis techniques is used to reliably estimate these probabilities. Having a prior record increased the risk of re-arrest; for example male non-Aboriginals arrested for murder with at least one prior arrest have an estimated probability of 0.72 of being rearrested for another offence of any type. Their estimated probability of being rearrested for another serious offence was 0.33. These findings should be of interest to courts and correctional agencies in assessing risk at various stages of the administration of criminal justice.",
keywords = "Homicide, recidivism, risk assessment, survival analysis",
author = "Roderic Broadhurst and Ross Maller and Max Maller and Brigitte Bouhours",
year = "2018",
month = "9",
day = "1",
doi = "10.1177/0004865817722393",
language = "English",
volume = "51",
pages = "395--411",
journal = "The Australian and New Zealand Journal of Criminology",
issn = "0004-8658",
publisher = "SAGE Publications Ltd",
number = "3",

}

The recidivism of homicide offenders in Western Australia. / Broadhurst, Roderic; Maller, Ross; Maller, Max; Bouhours, Brigitte.

In: Australian and New Zealand Journal of Criminology, Vol. 51, No. 3, 01.09.2018, p. 395-411.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - The recidivism of homicide offenders in Western Australia

AU - Broadhurst, Roderic

AU - Maller, Ross

AU - Maller, Max

AU - Bouhours, Brigitte

PY - 2018/9/1

Y1 - 2018/9/1

N2 - Popular perceptions about the recidivism of homicide offenders are contradictory, varying from one extreme – that such offenders rarely commit further violent offences – to the opposite, where it is thought that they remain at a high risk of serious reoffending. The present study draws on the records of 1088 persons arrested in Western Australia over the period 1984–2005 for domestic murders and other types of homicides (robbery and sexual murder), including attempted murder, conspiracy to murder, manslaughter (unintentional homicide) and driving causing death. Our database provides up to 22 years follow-up time (for those arrested in 1984) and accounts critically for the first and any subsequent arrests, if they occur. Of the 1088 persons, only 3 were subsequently arrested and charged with a homicide offence event in the follow-up period. Among those arrested for a murder and subsequently released, we estimate a probability of 0.66 (accounting for censoring) of being rearrested for another offence of any type. The corresponding probabilities for those originally arrested for manslaughter or for driving causing death were equal, at 0.43. A dynamic analysis of the longitudinal data by survival analysis techniques is used to reliably estimate these probabilities. Having a prior record increased the risk of re-arrest; for example male non-Aboriginals arrested for murder with at least one prior arrest have an estimated probability of 0.72 of being rearrested for another offence of any type. Their estimated probability of being rearrested for another serious offence was 0.33. These findings should be of interest to courts and correctional agencies in assessing risk at various stages of the administration of criminal justice.

AB - Popular perceptions about the recidivism of homicide offenders are contradictory, varying from one extreme – that such offenders rarely commit further violent offences – to the opposite, where it is thought that they remain at a high risk of serious reoffending. The present study draws on the records of 1088 persons arrested in Western Australia over the period 1984–2005 for domestic murders and other types of homicides (robbery and sexual murder), including attempted murder, conspiracy to murder, manslaughter (unintentional homicide) and driving causing death. Our database provides up to 22 years follow-up time (for those arrested in 1984) and accounts critically for the first and any subsequent arrests, if they occur. Of the 1088 persons, only 3 were subsequently arrested and charged with a homicide offence event in the follow-up period. Among those arrested for a murder and subsequently released, we estimate a probability of 0.66 (accounting for censoring) of being rearrested for another offence of any type. The corresponding probabilities for those originally arrested for manslaughter or for driving causing death were equal, at 0.43. A dynamic analysis of the longitudinal data by survival analysis techniques is used to reliably estimate these probabilities. Having a prior record increased the risk of re-arrest; for example male non-Aboriginals arrested for murder with at least one prior arrest have an estimated probability of 0.72 of being rearrested for another offence of any type. Their estimated probability of being rearrested for another serious offence was 0.33. These findings should be of interest to courts and correctional agencies in assessing risk at various stages of the administration of criminal justice.

KW - Homicide

KW - recidivism

KW - risk assessment

KW - survival analysis

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85051087239&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1177/0004865817722393

DO - 10.1177/0004865817722393

M3 - Article

VL - 51

SP - 395

EP - 411

JO - The Australian and New Zealand Journal of Criminology

JF - The Australian and New Zealand Journal of Criminology

SN - 0004-8658

IS - 3

ER -