The rate of binary black hole mergers inferred from advanced LIGO observations surrounding GW150914

ligo Scientific Collaboration, Virgo Collaboration

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

126 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

A transient gravitational-wave signal, GW150914, was identified in the twin Advanced LIGO detectors on 2015 September 2015 at 09:50:45 UTC. To assess the implications of this discovery, the detectors remained in operation with unchanged configurations over a period of 39 days around the time of the signal. At the detection statistic threshold corresponding to that observed for GW150914, our search of the 16 days of simultaneous two-detector observational data is estimated to have a false-alarm rate (FAR) of <4.9 × 10-6 yr-1, yielding a p-value for GW150914 of <2 × 10-7. Parameter estimation follow-up on this trigger identifies its source as a binary black hole (BBH) merger with component masses (m1, m2 ) = ( 36-4 +5, 29-4 +4 ) M at redshift = z = 0.09-0.04 +0.03 (median and 90% credible range). Here, we report on the constraints these observations place on the rate of BBH coalescences. Considering only GW150914, assuming that all BBHs in the universe have the same masses and spins as this event, imposing a search FAR threshold of 1 per 100 years, and assuming that the BBH merger rate is constant in the comoving frame, we infer a 90% credible range of merger rates between 2-53 Gpc-3 yr-1 (comoving frame). Incorporating all search triggers that pass a much lower threshold while accounting for the uncertainty in the astrophysical origin of each trigger, we estimate a higher rate, ranging from 13-600 Gpc-3yr-1 depending on assumptions about the BBH mass distribution. All together, our various rate estimates fall in the conservative range 2-600 Gpc-3 yr1.

Original languageEnglish
Article numberL1
JournalAstrophysical Journal Letters
Volume833
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 10 Dec 2016

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LIGO (observatory)
merger
actuators
false alarms
thresholds
detectors
estimates
coalescence
rate
mass distribution
gravitational waves
coalescing
astrophysics
universe
statistics
configurations
detector

Cite this

ligo Scientific Collaboration ; Virgo Collaboration. / The rate of binary black hole mergers inferred from advanced LIGO observations surrounding GW150914. In: Astrophysical Journal Letters. 2016 ; Vol. 833, No. 1.
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title = "The rate of binary black hole mergers inferred from advanced LIGO observations surrounding GW150914",
abstract = "A transient gravitational-wave signal, GW150914, was identified in the twin Advanced LIGO detectors on 2015 September 2015 at 09:50:45 UTC. To assess the implications of this discovery, the detectors remained in operation with unchanged configurations over a period of 39 days around the time of the signal. At the detection statistic threshold corresponding to that observed for GW150914, our search of the 16 days of simultaneous two-detector observational data is estimated to have a false-alarm rate (FAR) of <4.9 × 10-6 yr-1, yielding a p-value for GW150914 of <2 × 10-7. Parameter estimation follow-up on this trigger identifies its source as a binary black hole (BBH) merger with component masses (m1, m2 ) = ( 36-4 +5, 29-4 +4 ) M⊙ at redshift = z = 0.09-0.04 +0.03 (median and 90{\%} credible range). Here, we report on the constraints these observations place on the rate of BBH coalescences. Considering only GW150914, assuming that all BBHs in the universe have the same masses and spins as this event, imposing a search FAR threshold of 1 per 100 years, and assuming that the BBH merger rate is constant in the comoving frame, we infer a 90{\%} credible range of merger rates between 2-53 Gpc-3 yr-1 (comoving frame). Incorporating all search triggers that pass a much lower threshold while accounting for the uncertainty in the astrophysical origin of each trigger, we estimate a higher rate, ranging from 13-600 Gpc-3yr-1 depending on assumptions about the BBH mass distribution. All together, our various rate estimates fall in the conservative range 2-600 Gpc-3 yr1.",
keywords = "black holes, gravitational waves, stars: massive",
author = "{ligo Scientific Collaboration} and {Virgo Collaboration} and Abbott, {B. P.} and R. Abbott and Abbott, {T. D.} and Abernathy, {M. R.} and F. Acernese and K. Ackley and C. Adams and T. Adams and P. Addesso and Adhikari, {R. X.} and Adya, {V. B.} and C. Affeldt and M. Agathos and K. Agatsuma and N. Aggarwal and Aguiar, {O. D.} and L. Aiello and A. Ain and P. Ajith and B. Allen and A. Allocca and Altin, {P. A.} and Anderson, {S. B.} and Anderson, {W. G.} and K. Arai and Araya, {M. C.} and Arceneaux, {C. C.} and Areeda, {J. S.} and N. Arnaud and Arun, {K. G.} and S. Ascenzi and G. Ashton and M. Ast and Aston, {S. M.} and P. Astone and P. Aufmuth and C. Aulbert and S. Babak and P. Bacon and Bader, {M. K.M.} and Baker, {P. T.} and F. Baldaccini and G. Ballardin and Ballmer, {S. W.} and Barayoga, {J. C.} and Barclay, {S. E.} and Barish, {B. C.} and D. Barker and F. Barone and B. Barr and L. Barsotti and M. Barsuglia and D. Barta and J. Bartlett and I. Bartos and R. Bassiri and A. Basti and Batch, {J. C.} and C. Baune and V. Bavigadda and M. Bazzan and B. Behnke and M. Bejger and Bell, {A. S.} and Bell, {C. J.} and Berger, {B. K.} and J. Bergman and G. Bergmann and Berry, {C. P.L.} and D. Bersanetti and A. Bertolini and J. Betzwieser and S. Bhagwat and R. Bhandare and Bilenko, {I. A.} and G. Billingsley and J. Birch and R. Birney and S. Biscans and A. Bisht and M. Bitossi and C. Biwer and Bizouard, {M. A.} and Blackburn, {J. K.} and Blair, {C. D.} and Blair, {D. G.} and Blair, {R. M.} and S. Bloemen and O. Bock and Bodiya, {T. P.} and M. Boer and G. Bogaert and C. Bogan and A. Bohe and P. Bojtos and C. Bond and F. Bondu and R. Bonnand and Boom, {B. A.} and R. Bork and V. Boschi and S. Bose and Y. Bouffanais and A. Bozzi and C. Bradaschia and Brady, {P. R.} and Braginsky, {V. B.} and M. Branchesi and Brau, {J. E.} and T. Briant and A. Brillet and M. Brinkmann and V. Brisson and P. Brockill and Brooks, {A. F.} and Brown, {D. A.} and Brown, {D. D.} and Brown, {N. M.} and Buchanan, {C. C.} and A. Buikema and T. Bulik and Bulten, {H. J.} and A. Buonanno and D. Buskulic and C. Buy and Byer, {R. L.} and L. Cadonati and G. Cagnoli and C. Cahillane and {Calder{\'o}n Bustillo}, J. and T. Callister and E. Calloni and Camp, {J. B.} and Cannon, {K. C.} and J. Cao and Capano, {C. D.} and E. Capocasa and F. Carbognani and S. Caride and {Casanueva Diaz}, J. and C. Casentini and S. Caudill and M. Cavagli{\`a} and F. Cavalier and R. Cavalieri and G. Cella and Cepeda, {C. B.} and {Cerboni Baiardi}, L. and G. Cerretani and E. Cesarini and R. Chakraborty and T. Chalermsongsak and Chamberlin, {S. J.} and M. Chan and S. Chao and P. Charlton and E. Chassande-Mottin and Chen, {H. Y.} and Y. Chen and C. Cheng and A. Chincarini and A. Chiummo and Cho, {H. S.} and M. Cho and Chow, {J. H.} and N. Christensen and Q. Chu and S. Chua and S. Chung and G. Ciani and F. Clara and Clark, {J. A.} and F. Cleva and E. Coccia and Cohadon, {P. F.} and A. Colla and Collette, {C. G.} and L. Cominsky and M. Constancio and A. Conte and L. Conti and D. Cook and Corbitt, {T. R.} and N. Cornish and A. Corsi and S. Cortese and Costa, {C. A.} and Coughlin, {M. W.} and Coughlin, {S. B.} and Coulon, {J. P.} and Countryman, {S. T.} and P. Couvares and Cowan, {E. E.} and Coward, {D. M.} and Cowart, {M. J.} and Coyne, {D. C.} and R. Coyne and K. Craig and Creighton, {J. D.E.} and J. Cripe and Crowder, {S. G.} and A. Cumming and L. Cunningham and E. Cuoco and {Dal Canton}, T. and Danilishin, {S. L.} and S. D'Antonio and K. Danzmann and Darman, {N. S.} and V. Dattilo and I. Dave and Daveloza, {H. P.} and M. Davier and Davies, {G. S.} and Daw, {E. J.} and R. Day and S. De and D. DeBra and G. Debreczeni and J. Degallaix and {De Laurentis}, M. and S. Del{\'e}glise and {Del Pozzo}, W. and T. Denker and T. Dent and H. Dereli and V. Dergachev and {De Rosa}, R. and DeRosa, {R. T.} and R. DeSalvo and S. Dhurandhar and D{\'i}az, {M. C.} and {Di Fiore}, L. and {Di Giovanni}, M. and {Di Lieto}, A. and {Di Pace}, S. and {Di Palma}, I. and {Di Virgilio}, A. and G. Dojcinoski and V. Dolique and Q. Fang and B. Gendre and Howell, {E. J.} and L. Ju and T. Kaur and Y. Ma and {Van Heijningen}, {J. V.} and L. Wen and C. Zhao and Zhu, {X. J.}",
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month = "12",
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doi = "10.3847/2041-8205/833/1/L1",
language = "English",
volume = "833",
journal = "The Astrophysical Journal Letters",
issn = "2041-8205",
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}

The rate of binary black hole mergers inferred from advanced LIGO observations surrounding GW150914. / ligo Scientific Collaboration; Virgo Collaboration.

In: Astrophysical Journal Letters, Vol. 833, No. 1, L1, 10.12.2016.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - The rate of binary black hole mergers inferred from advanced LIGO observations surrounding GW150914

AU - ligo Scientific Collaboration

AU - Virgo Collaboration

AU - Abbott, B. P.

AU - Abbott, R.

AU - Abbott, T. D.

AU - Abernathy, M. R.

AU - Acernese, F.

AU - Ackley, K.

AU - Adams, C.

AU - Adams, T.

AU - Addesso, P.

AU - Adhikari, R. X.

AU - Adya, V. B.

AU - Affeldt, C.

AU - Agathos, M.

AU - Agatsuma, K.

AU - Aggarwal, N.

AU - Aguiar, O. D.

AU - Aiello, L.

AU - Ain, A.

AU - Ajith, P.

AU - Allen, B.

AU - Allocca, A.

AU - Altin, P. A.

AU - Anderson, S. B.

AU - Anderson, W. G.

AU - Arai, K.

AU - Araya, M. C.

AU - Arceneaux, C. C.

AU - Areeda, J. S.

AU - Arnaud, N.

AU - Arun, K. G.

AU - Ascenzi, S.

AU - Ashton, G.

AU - Ast, M.

AU - Aston, S. M.

AU - Astone, P.

AU - Aufmuth, P.

AU - Aulbert, C.

AU - Babak, S.

AU - Bacon, P.

AU - Bader, M. K.M.

AU - Baker, P. T.

AU - Baldaccini, F.

AU - Ballardin, G.

AU - Ballmer, S. W.

AU - Barayoga, J. C.

AU - Barclay, S. E.

AU - Barish, B. C.

AU - Barker, D.

AU - Barone, F.

AU - Barr, B.

AU - Barsotti, L.

AU - Barsuglia, M.

AU - Barta, D.

AU - Bartlett, J.

AU - Bartos, I.

AU - Bassiri, R.

AU - Basti, A.

AU - Batch, J. C.

AU - Baune, C.

AU - Bavigadda, V.

AU - Bazzan, M.

AU - Behnke, B.

AU - Bejger, M.

AU - Bell, A. S.

AU - Bell, C. J.

AU - Berger, B. K.

AU - Bergman, J.

AU - Bergmann, G.

AU - Berry, C. P.L.

AU - Bersanetti, D.

AU - Bertolini, A.

AU - Betzwieser, J.

AU - Bhagwat, S.

AU - Bhandare, R.

AU - Bilenko, I. A.

AU - Billingsley, G.

AU - Birch, J.

AU - Birney, R.

AU - Biscans, S.

AU - Bisht, A.

AU - Bitossi, M.

AU - Biwer, C.

AU - Bizouard, M. A.

AU - Blackburn, J. K.

AU - Blair, C. D.

AU - Blair, D. G.

AU - Blair, R. M.

AU - Bloemen, S.

AU - Bock, O.

AU - Bodiya, T. P.

AU - Boer, M.

AU - Bogaert, G.

AU - Bogan, C.

AU - Bohe, A.

AU - Bojtos, P.

AU - Bond, C.

AU - Bondu, F.

AU - Bonnand, R.

AU - Boom, B. A.

AU - Bork, R.

AU - Boschi, V.

AU - Bose, S.

AU - Bouffanais, Y.

AU - Bozzi, A.

AU - Bradaschia, C.

AU - Brady, P. R.

AU - Braginsky, V. B.

AU - Branchesi, M.

AU - Brau, J. E.

AU - Briant, T.

AU - Brillet, A.

AU - Brinkmann, M.

AU - Brisson, V.

AU - Brockill, P.

AU - Brooks, A. F.

AU - Brown, D. A.

AU - Brown, D. D.

AU - Brown, N. M.

AU - Buchanan, C. C.

AU - Buikema, A.

AU - Bulik, T.

AU - Bulten, H. J.

AU - Buonanno, A.

AU - Buskulic, D.

AU - Buy, C.

AU - Byer, R. L.

AU - Cadonati, L.

AU - Cagnoli, G.

AU - Cahillane, C.

AU - Calderón Bustillo, J.

AU - Callister, T.

AU - Calloni, E.

AU - Camp, J. B.

AU - Cannon, K. C.

AU - Cao, J.

AU - Capano, C. D.

AU - Capocasa, E.

AU - Carbognani, F.

AU - Caride, S.

AU - Casanueva Diaz, J.

AU - Casentini, C.

AU - Caudill, S.

AU - Cavaglià, M.

AU - Cavalier, F.

AU - Cavalieri, R.

AU - Cella, G.

AU - Cepeda, C. B.

AU - Cerboni Baiardi, L.

AU - Cerretani, G.

AU - Cesarini, E.

AU - Chakraborty, R.

AU - Chalermsongsak, T.

AU - Chamberlin, S. J.

AU - Chan, M.

AU - Chao, S.

AU - Charlton, P.

AU - Chassande-Mottin, E.

AU - Chen, H. Y.

AU - Chen, Y.

AU - Cheng, C.

AU - Chincarini, A.

AU - Chiummo, A.

AU - Cho, H. S.

AU - Cho, M.

AU - Chow, J. H.

AU - Christensen, N.

AU - Chu, Q.

AU - Chua, S.

AU - Chung, S.

AU - Ciani, G.

AU - Clara, F.

AU - Clark, J. A.

AU - Cleva, F.

AU - Coccia, E.

AU - Cohadon, P. F.

AU - Colla, A.

AU - Collette, C. G.

AU - Cominsky, L.

AU - Constancio, M.

AU - Conte, A.

AU - Conti, L.

AU - Cook, D.

AU - Corbitt, T. R.

AU - Cornish, N.

AU - Corsi, A.

AU - Cortese, S.

AU - Costa, C. A.

AU - Coughlin, M. W.

AU - Coughlin, S. B.

AU - Coulon, J. P.

AU - Countryman, S. T.

AU - Couvares, P.

AU - Cowan, E. E.

AU - Coward, D. M.

AU - Cowart, M. J.

AU - Coyne, D. C.

AU - Coyne, R.

AU - Craig, K.

AU - Creighton, J. D.E.

AU - Cripe, J.

AU - Crowder, S. G.

AU - Cumming, A.

AU - Cunningham, L.

AU - Cuoco, E.

AU - Dal Canton, T.

AU - Danilishin, S. L.

AU - D'Antonio, S.

AU - Danzmann, K.

AU - Darman, N. S.

AU - Dattilo, V.

AU - Dave, I.

AU - Daveloza, H. P.

AU - Davier, M.

AU - Davies, G. S.

AU - Daw, E. J.

AU - Day, R.

AU - De, S.

AU - DeBra, D.

AU - Debreczeni, G.

AU - Degallaix, J.

AU - De Laurentis, M.

AU - Deléglise, S.

AU - Del Pozzo, W.

AU - Denker, T.

AU - Dent, T.

AU - Dereli, H.

AU - Dergachev, V.

AU - De Rosa, R.

AU - DeRosa, R. T.

AU - DeSalvo, R.

AU - Dhurandhar, S.

AU - Díaz, M. C.

AU - Di Fiore, L.

AU - Di Giovanni, M.

AU - Di Lieto, A.

AU - Di Pace, S.

AU - Di Palma, I.

AU - Di Virgilio, A.

AU - Dojcinoski, G.

AU - Dolique, V.

AU - Fang, Q.

AU - Gendre, B.

AU - Howell, E. J.

AU - Ju, L.

AU - Kaur, T.

AU - Ma, Y.

AU - Van Heijningen, J. V.

AU - Wen, L.

AU - Zhao, C.

AU - Zhu, X. J.

PY - 2016/12/10

Y1 - 2016/12/10

N2 - A transient gravitational-wave signal, GW150914, was identified in the twin Advanced LIGO detectors on 2015 September 2015 at 09:50:45 UTC. To assess the implications of this discovery, the detectors remained in operation with unchanged configurations over a period of 39 days around the time of the signal. At the detection statistic threshold corresponding to that observed for GW150914, our search of the 16 days of simultaneous two-detector observational data is estimated to have a false-alarm rate (FAR) of <4.9 × 10-6 yr-1, yielding a p-value for GW150914 of <2 × 10-7. Parameter estimation follow-up on this trigger identifies its source as a binary black hole (BBH) merger with component masses (m1, m2 ) = ( 36-4 +5, 29-4 +4 ) M⊙ at redshift = z = 0.09-0.04 +0.03 (median and 90% credible range). Here, we report on the constraints these observations place on the rate of BBH coalescences. Considering only GW150914, assuming that all BBHs in the universe have the same masses and spins as this event, imposing a search FAR threshold of 1 per 100 years, and assuming that the BBH merger rate is constant in the comoving frame, we infer a 90% credible range of merger rates between 2-53 Gpc-3 yr-1 (comoving frame). Incorporating all search triggers that pass a much lower threshold while accounting for the uncertainty in the astrophysical origin of each trigger, we estimate a higher rate, ranging from 13-600 Gpc-3yr-1 depending on assumptions about the BBH mass distribution. All together, our various rate estimates fall in the conservative range 2-600 Gpc-3 yr1.

AB - A transient gravitational-wave signal, GW150914, was identified in the twin Advanced LIGO detectors on 2015 September 2015 at 09:50:45 UTC. To assess the implications of this discovery, the detectors remained in operation with unchanged configurations over a period of 39 days around the time of the signal. At the detection statistic threshold corresponding to that observed for GW150914, our search of the 16 days of simultaneous two-detector observational data is estimated to have a false-alarm rate (FAR) of <4.9 × 10-6 yr-1, yielding a p-value for GW150914 of <2 × 10-7. Parameter estimation follow-up on this trigger identifies its source as a binary black hole (BBH) merger with component masses (m1, m2 ) = ( 36-4 +5, 29-4 +4 ) M⊙ at redshift = z = 0.09-0.04 +0.03 (median and 90% credible range). Here, we report on the constraints these observations place on the rate of BBH coalescences. Considering only GW150914, assuming that all BBHs in the universe have the same masses and spins as this event, imposing a search FAR threshold of 1 per 100 years, and assuming that the BBH merger rate is constant in the comoving frame, we infer a 90% credible range of merger rates between 2-53 Gpc-3 yr-1 (comoving frame). Incorporating all search triggers that pass a much lower threshold while accounting for the uncertainty in the astrophysical origin of each trigger, we estimate a higher rate, ranging from 13-600 Gpc-3yr-1 depending on assumptions about the BBH mass distribution. All together, our various rate estimates fall in the conservative range 2-600 Gpc-3 yr1.

KW - black holes

KW - gravitational waves

KW - stars: massive

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85006469893&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.3847/2041-8205/833/1/L1

DO - 10.3847/2041-8205/833/1/L1

M3 - Article

VL - 833

JO - The Astrophysical Journal Letters

JF - The Astrophysical Journal Letters

SN - 2041-8205

IS - 1

M1 - L1

ER -