The Prebisch-Singer hypothesis: Four centuries of evidence

David I. Kellard, Neil M. Kellard, Jakob B. Madsen, Mark E. Wohar

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

122 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

We employ a unique data set and new time-series techniques to reexamine the existence of trends in relative primary commodity prices. The data set comprises 25 commodities and provides a new historical perspective, spanning the seventeenth to the twenty-first centuries. New tests for the trend function, robust to the order of integration of the series, are applied to the data. Results show that eleven price series present a significant and downward trend over all or some fraction of the sample period. In the very long run, a secular, deteriorating trend is a relevant phenomenon for a significant proportion of primary commodities.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)367-377
Number of pages11
JournalReview of Economics and Statistics
Volume92
Issue number2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 May 2010
Externally publishedYes

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