The impact of consumer confidence on oil prices

This paper studies the interrelationship between Chinese consumer confidence (CC) and the oil market by testing the full-sample and sub-sample. Some empirical conclusions show that CC can positively impact oil price (OP) manifested as high confidence may boost oil demand and lead to higher prices. However, the negative effects of CC on OP cannot support this view, mainly due to the lack of confidence that will lead to lower demand and excess oil supply, which can cause OP to decline while CC remains high. This can be explained by the fact that low OP leads consumers to spend more money on non-essential goods and boost CC. These negative impacts emphasise that economic turmoil will affect OP fluctuation, which makes it different from the intertemporal capital asset pricing model. Under the uncertain oil market, these conclusions benefit Chinese consumers and the government by adjusting oil reserves and steadying national economic growth. It inspires enterprises and the government to prevent sudden changes in OP and stabilise CC. © 2023 Elsevier B.V.