The future excess fraction model for calculating burden of disease

Lin Fritschi; Jayzii Chan; Sally J. Hutchings; Tim R Driscoll; Adrian YW Wong; Renee Carey

doi:10.1186/s12889-016-3066-1

The future excess fraction model for calculating burden of disease

Lin Fritschi, Jayzii Chan, Sally J. Hutchings, Tim R Driscoll, Adrian YW Wong, Renee Carey

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

9 Citations (Web of Science)

Abstract

Background
Estimates of the burden of disease caused by a particular agent are used to assist in making policy and prioritizing actions. Most estimations have employed the attributable fraction approach, which estimates the proportion of disease cases or deaths in a specific year which are attributable to past exposure to a particular agent. While this approach has proven extremely useful in quantifying health effects, it requires historical data on exposures which are not always available.

Methods
We present an alternative method, the future excess fraction method, which is based on the lifetime risk approach, and which requires current rather than historical exposure data. This method estimates the future number of exposure-related disease cases or deaths occurring in the subgroup of the population who were exposed to the particular agent in a specific year. We explain this method and use publicaly-available data on current asbestos exposure and mesothelioma incidence to demonstrate the use of the method.

Conclusions
Our approach to modelling burden of disease is useful when there are no historical measures of exposure and where future disease rates can be projected on person years at risk.

Original language	English
Article number	386
Number of pages	8
Journal	BMC Public Health
Volume	16
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-016-3066-1
Publication status	Published - 11 May 2016
Externally published	Yes

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10.1186/s12889-016-3066-1Licence: CC BY

Cite this

@article{3e64f1204bc849ff92ce1b44e56c818f,

title = "The future excess fraction model for calculating burden of disease",

abstract = "BackgroundEstimates of the burden of disease caused by a particular agent are used to assist in making policy and prioritizing actions. Most estimations have employed the attributable fraction approach, which estimates the proportion of disease cases or deaths in a specific year which are attributable to past exposure to a particular agent. While this approach has proven extremely useful in quantifying health effects, it requires historical data on exposures which are not always available.MethodsWe present an alternative method, the future excess fraction method, which is based on the lifetime risk approach, and which requires current rather than historical exposure data. This method estimates the future number of exposure-related disease cases or deaths occurring in the subgroup of the population who were exposed to the particular agent in a specific year. We explain this method and use publicaly-available data on current asbestos exposure and mesothelioma incidence to demonstrate the use of the method.ConclusionsOur approach to modelling burden of disease is useful when there are no historical measures of exposure and where future disease rates can be projected on person years at risk.",

author = "Lin Fritschi and Jayzii Chan and Hutchings, {Sally J.} and Driscoll, {Tim R} and Wong, {Adrian YW} and Renee Carey",

note = "This work was supported by National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) (#1056684) in partnership with SafeWork Australia, Cancer Council (CC) Australia and CC Western Australia (WA). LF is supported by fellowships from NHMRC and CCWA. We thank Deborah Glass and Geza Benke for their comments on the paper as well as the other co-investigators on the AWES program, Lesley Rushton, Susan Peters and Alison Reid.",

year = "2016",

month = may,

day = "11",

doi = "10.1186/s12889-016-3066-1",

language = "English",

volume = "16",

journal = "BMC Public Health",

issn = "1471-2458",

publisher = "BMC Proceedings",

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TY - JOUR

T1 - The future excess fraction model for calculating burden of disease

AU - Fritschi, Lin

AU - Chan, Jayzii

AU - Hutchings, Sally J.

AU - Driscoll, Tim R

AU - Wong, Adrian YW

AU - Carey, Renee

N1 - This work was supported by National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) (#1056684) in partnership with SafeWork Australia, Cancer Council (CC) Australia and CC Western Australia (WA). LF is supported by fellowships from NHMRC and CCWA. We thank Deborah Glass and Geza Benke for their comments on the paper as well as the other co-investigators on the AWES program, Lesley Rushton, Susan Peters and Alison Reid.

PY - 2016/5/11

Y1 - 2016/5/11

N2 - BackgroundEstimates of the burden of disease caused by a particular agent are used to assist in making policy and prioritizing actions. Most estimations have employed the attributable fraction approach, which estimates the proportion of disease cases or deaths in a specific year which are attributable to past exposure to a particular agent. While this approach has proven extremely useful in quantifying health effects, it requires historical data on exposures which are not always available.MethodsWe present an alternative method, the future excess fraction method, which is based on the lifetime risk approach, and which requires current rather than historical exposure data. This method estimates the future number of exposure-related disease cases or deaths occurring in the subgroup of the population who were exposed to the particular agent in a specific year. We explain this method and use publicaly-available data on current asbestos exposure and mesothelioma incidence to demonstrate the use of the method.ConclusionsOur approach to modelling burden of disease is useful when there are no historical measures of exposure and where future disease rates can be projected on person years at risk.

AB - BackgroundEstimates of the burden of disease caused by a particular agent are used to assist in making policy and prioritizing actions. Most estimations have employed the attributable fraction approach, which estimates the proportion of disease cases or deaths in a specific year which are attributable to past exposure to a particular agent. While this approach has proven extremely useful in quantifying health effects, it requires historical data on exposures which are not always available.MethodsWe present an alternative method, the future excess fraction method, which is based on the lifetime risk approach, and which requires current rather than historical exposure data. This method estimates the future number of exposure-related disease cases or deaths occurring in the subgroup of the population who were exposed to the particular agent in a specific year. We explain this method and use publicaly-available data on current asbestos exposure and mesothelioma incidence to demonstrate the use of the method.ConclusionsOur approach to modelling burden of disease is useful when there are no historical measures of exposure and where future disease rates can be projected on person years at risk.

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DO - 10.1186/s12889-016-3066-1

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C2 - 27169472

SN - 1471-2458

VL - 16

JO - BMC Public Health

JF - BMC Public Health

M1 - 386

ER -

The future excess fraction model for calculating burden of disease

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The Extended Australian Workplace Exposures Study - AWES2

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The future excess fraction model for calculating burden of disease

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The Extended Australian Workplace Exposures Study - AWES2

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