Abstract
Since 2007, China's growth has fallen from around 10% to about 6%–7% per annum. This paper investigates the experience of this slowdown at the provincial level. We use a vector-autoregressive modelling approach and annual data from 1978 to decompose each province's growth into various factors. We find that (a) all provinces experienced the slowdown; (b) there is considerable variation in this experience across provinces; (c) national factors dominate the provincial slowdown while province-specific factors explain most of the interprovincial variation; (d) when the national factor is separated into supply and demand components, the supply component dominates.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Journal | GROWTH AND CHANGE |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | E-pub ahead of print - 14 Aug 2019 |
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The effects of China’s growth slowdown on its provinces : Disentangling the sources. / Chen, Anping; Groenewold, Nicolaas.
In: GROWTH AND CHANGE, 14.08.2019.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
TY - JOUR
T1 - The effects of China’s growth slowdown on its provinces
T2 - Disentangling the sources
AU - Chen, Anping
AU - Groenewold, Nicolaas
PY - 2019/8/14
Y1 - 2019/8/14
N2 - Since 2007, China's growth has fallen from around 10% to about 6%–7% per annum. This paper investigates the experience of this slowdown at the provincial level. We use a vector-autoregressive modelling approach and annual data from 1978 to decompose each province's growth into various factors. We find that (a) all provinces experienced the slowdown; (b) there is considerable variation in this experience across provinces; (c) national factors dominate the provincial slowdown while province-specific factors explain most of the interprovincial variation; (d) when the national factor is separated into supply and demand components, the supply component dominates.
AB - Since 2007, China's growth has fallen from around 10% to about 6%–7% per annum. This paper investigates the experience of this slowdown at the provincial level. We use a vector-autoregressive modelling approach and annual data from 1978 to decompose each province's growth into various factors. We find that (a) all provinces experienced the slowdown; (b) there is considerable variation in this experience across provinces; (c) national factors dominate the provincial slowdown while province-specific factors explain most of the interprovincial variation; (d) when the national factor is separated into supply and demand components, the supply component dominates.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85070760830&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1111/grow.12326
DO - 10.1111/grow.12326
M3 - Article
JO - GROWTH AND CHANGE
JF - GROWTH AND CHANGE
SN - 0017-4815
ER -