The effects of China’s growth slowdown on its provinces: Disentangling the sources

Anping Chen, Nicolaas Groenewold

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Since 2007, China's growth has fallen from around 10% to about 6%–7% per annum. This paper investigates the experience of this slowdown at the provincial level. We use a vector-autoregressive modelling approach and annual data from 1978 to decompose each province's growth into various factors. We find that (a) all provinces experienced the slowdown; (b) there is considerable variation in this experience across provinces; (c) national factors dominate the provincial slowdown while province-specific factors explain most of the interprovincial variation; (d) when the national factor is separated into supply and demand components, the supply component dominates.

Original languageEnglish
JournalGROWTH AND CHANGE
DOIs
Publication statusE-pub ahead of print - 14 Aug 2019

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abstract = "Since 2007, China's growth has fallen from around 10{\%} to about 6{\%}–7{\%} per annum. This paper investigates the experience of this slowdown at the provincial level. We use a vector-autoregressive modelling approach and annual data from 1978 to decompose each province's growth into various factors. We find that (a) all provinces experienced the slowdown; (b) there is considerable variation in this experience across provinces; (c) national factors dominate the provincial slowdown while province-specific factors explain most of the interprovincial variation; (d) when the national factor is separated into supply and demand components, the supply component dominates.",
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The effects of China’s growth slowdown on its provinces : Disentangling the sources. / Chen, Anping; Groenewold, Nicolaas.

In: GROWTH AND CHANGE, 14.08.2019.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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AB - Since 2007, China's growth has fallen from around 10% to about 6%–7% per annum. This paper investigates the experience of this slowdown at the provincial level. We use a vector-autoregressive modelling approach and annual data from 1978 to decompose each province's growth into various factors. We find that (a) all provinces experienced the slowdown; (b) there is considerable variation in this experience across provinces; (c) national factors dominate the provincial slowdown while province-specific factors explain most of the interprovincial variation; (d) when the national factor is separated into supply and demand components, the supply component dominates.

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