The effects of China's growth slowdonw on its provinces: Disentangling the sources

Since 2007 China’s growth has fallen from around 10% to about 6-7% per annum. This paper investigates the experience of this slowdown at the provincial level. We use a vector- autoregressive modelling approach and annual data from 1978 to decompose each province’s growth into various factors. We find that (1) all provinces experienced the slowdown; (2) there is considerable variation in this experience across provinces; (3) national factors dominate the provincial slowdown while province-specific factors explain most of the interprovincial variation; (4) when the national factor is separated into supply and demand components, the supply component dominates.