The Deep Historical Roots of Macroeconomic Volatility

Sam Hak Kan Tang, Charles Ka Yui Leung

Research output: Working paperDiscussion paper

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Abstract

We present cross-country evidence that a country’s macroeconomic volatility, measured either by the standard deviation of output growth or the occurrence of trend-growth breaks, is significantly affected by the country’s historical variables. In particular, countries with longer histories of state-level political institutions experience less macroeconomic volatility in post­war periods. In addition, we show that political instability, discretionary fiscal policy, financial underdevelopment, and a lack of foreign direct investment are the main mechanisms by which state history affects the macroeconomic volatility of modern states.
Original languageEnglish
PublisherUWA Business School
Publication statusPublished - 2014

Publication series

NameEconomics Discussion Papers
No.31
Volume14

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