Phosphorus (P) loss from agricultural areas to waterbodies is a worldwide concern. However, the effect of soil source and transport factors, such as clay (C) content and slope (S), on the magnitude of the P transport in Brazilian subtropical soils is still understudied. The objectives of this study were i) to quantify the loss of P fractions by runoff in areas receiving pig slurry application and with variations in S and C content; ii) propose an environmental critical limit model of P (P-threshold) for Brazilian subtropical soils. Thus, two series of experiments were conducted from 2016 to 2018, one under a Nitisol with 642 g kg−1 of C and another under a Cambisol with 225 g kg−1 of C. The treatments were four P rates (0, 56, 112 and 224 kg P ha−1 year−1) superficially applied as pig slurry, on Tifton (Cynodon sp) pasture, and three S (10, 20 and 30% in the Nitisol and 15, 25 and 35% in Cambisol). P losses increased in both soils as the S and P rates rose. The Nitisol showed P losses three times higher than the Cambisol. Soil S above 25% promotes P losses at a rate three times higher than in soil below this limit. Therefore, we propose a P-threshold model for Mehlich-1 extractable P levels for Brazilian subtropical soils as: “P-threshold = (42.287 + C) − (0.230 S + 0.0123 C S)” in soils with a S ≤ 25% and “P-threshold = (42.287 + C) − (−0.437 S + 0.039 C S)” in soils with a S >25%, where both C and S are shown in percentage. The soil clay content and slope are aggravating factors to the P transfer process, thus must be considered in suitable models to predict the P losses risk.