© 2015 Taylor & Francis. A global population–economy–resource model explores the future impact of declining resource availability on the world economy. The model tracks the likely future consumption of renewable resources, fossil fuels and non-renewable materials and the economic impact of availability. Scarcity will likely become evident during the latter part of this century and constrain economic production, reducing income per capita, living standards and ultimately population. Policy interventions involving a rapid transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy, reduced resource intensity and materials recycling are necessary to correct this trajectory and facilitate ongoing improvements in global average living standards.