Seasonal Variation in Birth Rates: Physiology versus Family Planning

Seasonal variation in birth rates is a ubiquitous property of human populations. Although the general birth rate is dependent on relatively few parameters—sexual behavior, zygote survival, and the number of ova released—the quantitative influence of the effects of each is difficult to estimate. Research has been directed more towards seasonal variation in physiology and less towards behavioral effects such as preferences for birthing in particular seasons. This may be because alongside seasonal variation in birth rate there is also seasonal variation in the multiple birth rate, which necessarily depends on the same physiological factors as the birth rate, suggestive of a link. Here we use a simulation that follows females through their reproductive lives, replicating the incidence of singleton and twin births that arise from single and double ovulations. We use the simulation to quantify the impact of seasonal variation in the physiological variables that affect birth rate. We can generate the seasonal variation in twinning rates observed in European populations, but this does not generate the magnitude of the observed seasonal variation in birth rate. Our simulation shows that, despite correlations between twinning rate and general birth rate, seasonal changes in sexual behavior are necessary to explain the magnitude of the seasonal variation in the general birth rate in humans.