Same, same, but different: dissimilarities in the hydrothermal germination performance of range-restricted endemics emerge despite microclimatic similarities

Seed germination responses for most narrow-range endemic species are poorly understood, imperilling their conservation management in the face of warming and drying terrestrial ecosystems. We quantified the realized microclimatic niches and the hydrothermal germination thresholds in four threatened taxa (Tetratheca erubescens, Tetratheca harperi, Tetratheca paynterae subsp. paynterae and Tetratheca aphylla subsp. aphylla) that are restricted to individual Banded Ironstone Formations in Western Australia. While T. aphylla subsp. aphylla largely failed to germinate in our trials, all other species demonstrated extended hydrothermal time accumulation (186–500^◦C MPa days), cool minimum temperatures (7.8–8.5^◦C), but broad base water potential thresholds (−2.46 to −5.41 MPa) under which germination occurred. These slow germination dynamics are suggestive of cool and wet winter months, where soil moisture is retained to a greater capacity in local microsites where these species occur, rather than the warmer and drier conditions in the surrounding arid environment. Hydrothermal time-to-event modelling showed that each species occupied unique hydrothermal germination niches, which correspond with the microclimatic differences the species are exposed to. Our results provide a baseline understanding for environmental and germination thresholds that govern the recruitment, and ultimately the population structure and persistence, of these short-range endemic plants. In addition, our results can aid future conservation, as well as restoration actions such as translocation to bolster population numbers and to mitigate against losses due to anthropogenic disturbance and global environmental change.