Risk analysis in geological modelling

[Truncated] Nowadays, reliable estimation in project evaluation is a key concern in the mining and exploration industry, regardless of the type of mineral commodity. Of the many factors that may impact on the project evaluation, geological risk is known to be one of the most serious problems. However, most studies have focused on quantifying the risks integrated with mining fields, and a more systematic and practical approach to risk analysis in geological modelling has yet to be made. The main objectives of this research are to investigate error and risk elements in a geological model, and to measure the impact and sensitivity of risks by way of various tests using a case-study, and then ultimately, to assess the risk level in the geological model. To achieve these aims, a total of four groups of errors were examined, i.e. database, orebody boundary interpretation, modelling process and variogram modelling errors. To measure the impact of various risk factors on a geological model, three different analysis methods, i.e. tonnage and metal quantity variation versus cut-off grade, Q-Q plot and variogram analysis, were employed. Subsequently, based on the analysis of the results, a classification of risk level was made.