Projecting the performance of conservation interventions

Elizabeth A. Law, Paul J. Ferraro, Peter Arcese, Brett A. Bryan, Katrina Davis, Ascelin Gordon, Matthew H. Holden, Gwenllian Iacona, Raymundo Marcos Martinez, Clive A. McAlpine, Jonathan R. Rhodes, Jocelyne S. Sze, Kerrie A. Wilson

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

13 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Successful decision-making for environmental management requires evidence of the performance and efficacy of proposed conservation interventions. Projecting the future impacts of prospective conservation policies and programs is challenging due to a range of complex ecological, economic, social and ethical factors, and in particular the need to extrapolate models to novel contexts. Yet many extrapolation techniques currently employed are limited by unfounded assumptions of causality and a reliance on potentially biased inferences drawn from limited data. We show how these restrictions can be overcome by established and emerging techniques from causal inference, scenario analysis, systematic review, expert elicitation, and global sensitivity analysis. These technical advances provide avenues to untangle cause from correlation, evaluate and transfer models between contexts, characterize uncertainty, and address imperfect data. With more rigorous projections of prospective performance of interventions, scientists can deliver policy and program advice that is more scientifically credible.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)142-151
Number of pages10
JournalBiological Conservation
Volume215
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Nov 2017

Fingerprint Dive into the research topics of 'Projecting the performance of conservation interventions'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

  • Cite this

    Law, E. A., Ferraro, P. J., Arcese, P., Bryan, B. A., Davis, K., Gordon, A., Holden, M. H., Iacona, G., Marcos Martinez, R., McAlpine, C. A., Rhodes, J. R., Sze, J. S., & Wilson, K. A. (2017). Projecting the performance of conservation interventions. Biological Conservation, 215, 142-151. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2017.08.029