Projected age- and sex-specific prevalence of cardiovascular diseases in Western Australian adults from 2005-2045

D. Sarink, Lee Nedkoff, Tom Briffa, J.E. Shaw, D.J. Magliano, C. Stevenson, H. Mannan, Matthew Knuiman, A. Peeters

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

5 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Background
For decades, the incidence and mortality of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) have declined. More recently, we have seen a halting in these declines, especially at younger ages. It is difficult to predict how these changing trends will impact CVD prevalence. We aimed to predict future prevalence of CVDs in Western Australian adults from 2005–2045 based on current incidence and mortality probabilities, population growth and ageing.
Methods and results
Multi-state life table models were developed using 2005–2009 age- and sex-specific incidence and mortality probabilities from the Western Australian Data Linkage System. Prevalence of CVD, coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke was projected until 2045. Life expectancy and lifetime risk were estimated. We estimate that compared to 2005–2009, we will see 37,235 (CVD), 23,129 (CHD) and 9806 (stroke) more incident cases in 2040–2044. The prevalence of total CVD is predicted to increase from 8.4% in men and 5.1% in women in 2005 to 12.7% and 7.9% respectively in 2045. This seems to be mainly due to population growth and ageing, with some effect of changing incidence and mortality. In Western Australia this represents an additional 106,949 adults living with CVD, of which 65,951 with CHD and 10,928 with stroke, in 2045 compared to 2005.
Conclusions
Assuming no major changes in prevention and treatment of CVD, the prevalence will likely increase, with consequent increases in health care need and cost. These findings need to be confirmed by studies in which prevalence is consistently and empirically measured and monitored over time.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)23-32
Number of pages10
JournalEuropean Journal of Preventive Cardiology
Volume23
Issue number01
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jan 2016

Fingerprint

Cardiovascular Diseases
Coronary Disease
Mortality
Population Growth
Stroke
Incidence
Western Australia
Life Tables
Information Storage and Retrieval
Life Expectancy
Information Systems
Health Care Costs

Cite this

@article{7d4d6cc3146c40c7832530d86fcb780d,
title = "Projected age- and sex-specific prevalence of cardiovascular diseases in Western Australian adults from 2005-2045",
abstract = "BackgroundFor decades, the incidence and mortality of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) have declined. More recently, we have seen a halting in these declines, especially at younger ages. It is difficult to predict how these changing trends will impact CVD prevalence. We aimed to predict future prevalence of CVDs in Western Australian adults from 2005–2045 based on current incidence and mortality probabilities, population growth and ageing. Methods and resultsMulti-state life table models were developed using 2005–2009 age- and sex-specific incidence and mortality probabilities from the Western Australian Data Linkage System. Prevalence of CVD, coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke was projected until 2045. Life expectancy and lifetime risk were estimated. We estimate that compared to 2005–2009, we will see 37,235 (CVD), 23,129 (CHD) and 9806 (stroke) more incident cases in 2040–2044. The prevalence of total CVD is predicted to increase from 8.4{\%} in men and 5.1{\%} in women in 2005 to 12.7{\%} and 7.9{\%} respectively in 2045. This seems to be mainly due to population growth and ageing, with some effect of changing incidence and mortality. In Western Australia this represents an additional 106,949 adults living with CVD, of which 65,951 with CHD and 10,928 with stroke, in 2045 compared to 2005. ConclusionsAssuming no major changes in prevention and treatment of CVD, the prevalence will likely increase, with consequent increases in health care need and cost. These findings need to be confirmed by studies in which prevalence is consistently and empirically measured and monitored over time.",
author = "D. Sarink and Lee Nedkoff and Tom Briffa and J.E. Shaw and D.J. Magliano and C. Stevenson and H. Mannan and Matthew Knuiman and A. Peeters",
year = "2016",
month = "1",
doi = "10.1177/2047487314554865",
language = "English",
volume = "23",
pages = "23--32",
journal = "European Journal of Cardiovascular Prevention & Rehabilitation",
issn = "1350-6277",
publisher = "SAGE Publications Ltd",
number = "01",

}

Projected age- and sex-specific prevalence of cardiovascular diseases in Western Australian adults from 2005-2045. / Sarink, D.; Nedkoff, Lee; Briffa, Tom; Shaw, J.E.; Magliano, D.J.; Stevenson, C.; Mannan, H.; Knuiman, Matthew; Peeters, A.

In: European Journal of Preventive Cardiology, Vol. 23, No. 01, 01.2016, p. 23-32.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - Projected age- and sex-specific prevalence of cardiovascular diseases in Western Australian adults from 2005-2045

AU - Sarink, D.

AU - Nedkoff, Lee

AU - Briffa, Tom

AU - Shaw, J.E.

AU - Magliano, D.J.

AU - Stevenson, C.

AU - Mannan, H.

AU - Knuiman, Matthew

AU - Peeters, A.

PY - 2016/1

Y1 - 2016/1

N2 - BackgroundFor decades, the incidence and mortality of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) have declined. More recently, we have seen a halting in these declines, especially at younger ages. It is difficult to predict how these changing trends will impact CVD prevalence. We aimed to predict future prevalence of CVDs in Western Australian adults from 2005–2045 based on current incidence and mortality probabilities, population growth and ageing. Methods and resultsMulti-state life table models were developed using 2005–2009 age- and sex-specific incidence and mortality probabilities from the Western Australian Data Linkage System. Prevalence of CVD, coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke was projected until 2045. Life expectancy and lifetime risk were estimated. We estimate that compared to 2005–2009, we will see 37,235 (CVD), 23,129 (CHD) and 9806 (stroke) more incident cases in 2040–2044. The prevalence of total CVD is predicted to increase from 8.4% in men and 5.1% in women in 2005 to 12.7% and 7.9% respectively in 2045. This seems to be mainly due to population growth and ageing, with some effect of changing incidence and mortality. In Western Australia this represents an additional 106,949 adults living with CVD, of which 65,951 with CHD and 10,928 with stroke, in 2045 compared to 2005. ConclusionsAssuming no major changes in prevention and treatment of CVD, the prevalence will likely increase, with consequent increases in health care need and cost. These findings need to be confirmed by studies in which prevalence is consistently and empirically measured and monitored over time.

AB - BackgroundFor decades, the incidence and mortality of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) have declined. More recently, we have seen a halting in these declines, especially at younger ages. It is difficult to predict how these changing trends will impact CVD prevalence. We aimed to predict future prevalence of CVDs in Western Australian adults from 2005–2045 based on current incidence and mortality probabilities, population growth and ageing. Methods and resultsMulti-state life table models were developed using 2005–2009 age- and sex-specific incidence and mortality probabilities from the Western Australian Data Linkage System. Prevalence of CVD, coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke was projected until 2045. Life expectancy and lifetime risk were estimated. We estimate that compared to 2005–2009, we will see 37,235 (CVD), 23,129 (CHD) and 9806 (stroke) more incident cases in 2040–2044. The prevalence of total CVD is predicted to increase from 8.4% in men and 5.1% in women in 2005 to 12.7% and 7.9% respectively in 2045. This seems to be mainly due to population growth and ageing, with some effect of changing incidence and mortality. In Western Australia this represents an additional 106,949 adults living with CVD, of which 65,951 with CHD and 10,928 with stroke, in 2045 compared to 2005. ConclusionsAssuming no major changes in prevention and treatment of CVD, the prevalence will likely increase, with consequent increases in health care need and cost. These findings need to be confirmed by studies in which prevalence is consistently and empirically measured and monitored over time.

U2 - 10.1177/2047487314554865

DO - 10.1177/2047487314554865

M3 - Article

VL - 23

SP - 23

EP - 32

JO - European Journal of Cardiovascular Prevention & Rehabilitation

JF - European Journal of Cardiovascular Prevention & Rehabilitation

SN - 1350-6277

IS - 01

ER -