Potential impact of a maternal vaccine for RSV: A mathematical modelling study

Alexandra B. Hogan, Patricia T. Campbell, Christopher C. Blyth, Faye J. Lim, Parveen Fathima, Stephanie Davis, Hannah C. Moore, Kathryn Glass

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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Abstract

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a major cause of respiratory morbidity and one of the main causes of hospitalisation in young children. While there is currently no licensed vaccine for RSV, a vaccine candidate for pregnant women is undergoing phase 3 trials. We developed a compartmental age-structured model for RSV transmission, validated using linked laboratory-confirmed RSV hospitalisation records for metropolitan Western Australia. We adapted the model to incorporate a maternal RSV vaccine, and estimated the expected reduction in RSV hospitalisations arising from such a program. The introduction of a vaccine was estimated to reduce RSV hospitalisations in Western Australia by 6–37% for 0–2 month old children, and 30–46% for 3–5 month old children, for a range of vaccine effectiveness levels. Our model shows that, provided a vaccine is demonstrated to extend protection against RSV disease beyond the first three months of life, a policy using a maternal RSV vaccine could be effective in reducing RSV hospitalisations in children up to six months of age, meeting the objective of a maternal vaccine in delaying an infant's first RSV infection to an age at which severe disease is less likely.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)6172-6179
Number of pages8
JournalVaccine
Volume35
Issue number45
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 27 Oct 2017

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Respiratory Syncytial Virus Vaccines
Respiratory Syncytial Viruses
mathematical models
Mothers
vaccines
viruses
Hospitalization
Vaccines
Western Australia
Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections
Virus Diseases
Pregnant Women
virus transmission
pregnant women
Morbidity
morbidity

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Hogan, A. B., Campbell, P. T., Blyth, C. C., Lim, F. J., Fathima, P., Davis, S., ... Glass, K. (2017). Potential impact of a maternal vaccine for RSV: A mathematical modelling study. Vaccine, 35(45), 6172-6179. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2017.09.043
Hogan, Alexandra B. ; Campbell, Patricia T. ; Blyth, Christopher C. ; Lim, Faye J. ; Fathima, Parveen ; Davis, Stephanie ; Moore, Hannah C. ; Glass, Kathryn. / Potential impact of a maternal vaccine for RSV : A mathematical modelling study. In: Vaccine. 2017 ; Vol. 35, No. 45. pp. 6172-6179.
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Hogan, AB, Campbell, PT, Blyth, CC, Lim, FJ, Fathima, P, Davis, S, Moore, HC & Glass, K 2017, 'Potential impact of a maternal vaccine for RSV: A mathematical modelling study' Vaccine, vol. 35, no. 45, pp. 6172-6179. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2017.09.043

Potential impact of a maternal vaccine for RSV : A mathematical modelling study. / Hogan, Alexandra B.; Campbell, Patricia T.; Blyth, Christopher C.; Lim, Faye J.; Fathima, Parveen; Davis, Stephanie; Moore, Hannah C.; Glass, Kathryn.

In: Vaccine, Vol. 35, No. 45, 27.10.2017, p. 6172-6179.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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