Optimism and the Occult Octopus: Favorites Lose, Underdogs Triumph, and Spain Finally Wins the World Cup

As the excitement grows to a fever pitch leading up to the 2014 FIFA World Cup in Brazil, we seek to understand the secrets of the Successful Cephalopod incorrectly picking the winner every time during the 2010 tournament. Specifically, we examine how mere human mortals stacked up against the Oracle of Oberhausen in their predictions of match outcomes during the 2010 World Cup and likely reasons for any observed differences. In doing so, we contemplate possible behavioral biases driving the selections of armchair pundits that may not have been a factor in the exhilarating exploits of the Magnificent Mollusk. Based on our findings, we propose adjustments to the manner in which match winners are selected to improve prediction accuracy for the forthcoming competition.