Mortality, morbidity, and hospitalisations due to influenza lower respiratory tract infections, 2017: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

GBD 2017 Influenza Collaborators

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

10 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Background Although the burden of influenza is often discussed in the context of historical pandemics and the threat of future pandemics, every year a substantial burden of lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs) and other respiratory conditions (like chronic obstructive pulmonary disease) are attributable to seasonal influenza. The Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2017 is a systematic scientific effort to quantify the health loss associated with a comprehensive set of diseases and disabilities. In this Article, we focus on LRTIs that can be attributed to influenza.

Methods We modelled the LRTI incidence, hospitalisations, and mortality attributable to influenza for every country and selected subnational locations by age and year from 1990 to 2017 as part of GBD 2017. We used a counterfactual approach that first estimated the LRTI incidence, hospitalisations, and mortality and then attributed a fraction of those outcomes to influenza.

Findings Influenza LRTI was responsible for an estimated 145 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 99 000-200 000) deaths among all ages in 2017. The influenza LRTI mortality rate was highest among adults older than 70 years (16.4 deaths per 100 000 [95% UI 11.6-21.9]), and the highest rate among all ages was in eastern Europe (5.2 per 100 000 population [95% UI 3.5-7.2]). We estimated that influenza LRTIs accounted for 9 459 000 (95% UI 3 709 000-22 935 000) hospitalisations due to LRTIs and 81 536 000 hospital days (24 330 000-259 851 000). We estimated that 11.5% (95% UI 10.0-12.9) of LRTI episodes were attributable to influenza, corresponding to 54 481 000 (38 465 000-73 864 000) episodes and 8 172 000 severe episodes (5 000 000-13 296 000).

Interpretation This comprehensive assessment of the burden of influenza LRTIs shows the substantial annual effect of influenza on global health. Although preparedness planning will be important for potential pandemics, health loss due to seasonal influenza LRTIs should not be overlooked, and vaccine use should be considered. Efforts to improve influenza prevention measures are needed. Copyright (c) 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)69-89
Number of pages21
JournalLancet Respiratory Medicine
Volume7
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jan 2019

Cite this

@article{54a7d2828bc94e5fb4ad97ffbf786e39,
title = "Mortality, morbidity, and hospitalisations due to influenza lower respiratory tract infections, 2017: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017",
abstract = "Background Although the burden of influenza is often discussed in the context of historical pandemics and the threat of future pandemics, every year a substantial burden of lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs) and other respiratory conditions (like chronic obstructive pulmonary disease) are attributable to seasonal influenza. The Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2017 is a systematic scientific effort to quantify the health loss associated with a comprehensive set of diseases and disabilities. In this Article, we focus on LRTIs that can be attributed to influenza.Methods We modelled the LRTI incidence, hospitalisations, and mortality attributable to influenza for every country and selected subnational locations by age and year from 1990 to 2017 as part of GBD 2017. We used a counterfactual approach that first estimated the LRTI incidence, hospitalisations, and mortality and then attributed a fraction of those outcomes to influenza.Findings Influenza LRTI was responsible for an estimated 145 000 (95{\%} uncertainty interval [UI] 99 000-200 000) deaths among all ages in 2017. The influenza LRTI mortality rate was highest among adults older than 70 years (16.4 deaths per 100 000 [95{\%} UI 11.6-21.9]), and the highest rate among all ages was in eastern Europe (5.2 per 100 000 population [95{\%} UI 3.5-7.2]). We estimated that influenza LRTIs accounted for 9 459 000 (95{\%} UI 3 709 000-22 935 000) hospitalisations due to LRTIs and 81 536 000 hospital days (24 330 000-259 851 000). We estimated that 11.5{\%} (95{\%} UI 10.0-12.9) of LRTI episodes were attributable to influenza, corresponding to 54 481 000 (38 465 000-73 864 000) episodes and 8 172 000 severe episodes (5 000 000-13 296 000).Interpretation This comprehensive assessment of the burden of influenza LRTIs shows the substantial annual effect of influenza on global health. Although preparedness planning will be important for potential pandemics, health loss due to seasonal influenza LRTIs should not be overlooked, and vaccine use should be considered. Efforts to improve influenza prevention measures are needed. Copyright (c) 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.",
keywords = "BACTERIAL, VACCINES, VACCINATION, PNEUMONIA, CHILDREN, AFRICA",
author = "{GBD 2017 Influenza Collaborators} and Troeger, {Christopher E.} and Blacker, {Brigette F.} and Khalil, {Ibrahim A.} and Zimsen, {Stephanie R. M.} and Albertson, {Samuel B.} and Degu Abate and Jemal Abdela and Adhikari, {Tara Ballav} and Aghayan, {Sargis Aghasi} and Sutapa Agrawal and Alireza Ahmadi and Aichour, {Amani Nidhal} and Ibtihel Aichour and Aichour, {Miloud Taki Eddine} and Ayman Al-Eyadhy and Al-Raddadi, {Rajaa M.} and Fares Alahdab and Alene, {Kefyalew Addis} and Aljunid, {Syed Mohamed} and Nelson Alvis-Guzman and Anber, {Nahla Hamed} and Mina Anjomshoa and Antonio, {Carl Abelardo T.} and Olatunde Aremu and Atalay, {Hagos Tasew} and Suleman Atique and Attia, {Engi F.} and Avokpaho, {Euripide F. G. A.} and Ashish Awasthi and Arefeh Babazadeh and Hamid Badali and Alaa Badawi and Banoub, {Joseph Adel Mattar} and Aleksandra Barac and Quique Bassat and Neeraj Bedi and Belachew, {Abate Bekele} and Bennett, {Derrick A.} and Krittika Bhattacharyya and Bhutta, {Zulfiqar A.} and Ali Bijani and Felix Carvalho and Castaneda-Orjuela, {Carlos A.} and Christopher, {Devasahayam J.} and Lalit Dandona and Rakhi Dandona and Dang, {Anh Kim} and Ahmad Daryani and Degefa, {Meaza Girma} and Demeke, {Feleke Mekonnen} and Meghnath Dhimal and Shirin Djalalinia and Doku, {David Teye} and Manisha Dubey and Eleonora Dubljanin and Duken, {Eyasu Ejeta} and Dumessa Edessa and Zaki, {Maysaa El Sayed} and Hamed Fakhim and Eduarda Fernandes and Florian Fischer and Flor, {Luisa Sorio} and Foreman, {Kyle J.} and Gebremichael, {Teklu Gebrehiwo} and Demeke Geremew and Keyghobad Ghadiri and Goulart, {Alessandra C.} and Jingwen Guo and Ha, {Giang Hai} and Hailu, {Gessessew Bugssa} and Arvin Haj-Mirzaian and Arya Haj-Mirzaian and Samer Hamidi and Hassen, {Hamid Yimam} and Hoang, {Chi Linh} and Nobuyuki Horita and Mihaela Hostiuc and Irvani, {Seyed Sina Naghibi} and Jha, {Ravi Prakash} and Jonas, {Jost B.} and Amaha Kahsay and Andre Karch and Amir Kasaeian and Kassa, {Tesfaye Dessale} and Kefale, {Adane Teshome} and Khader, {Yousef Saleh} and Khan, {Ejaz Ahmad} and Gulfaraz Khan and Khan, {Md Nuruzzaman} and Young-Ho Khang and Khoja, {Abdullah T.} and Jagdish Khubchandani and Kimokoti, {Ruth W.} and Adnan Kisa and Knibbs, {Luke D.} and Sonali Kochhar and Soewarta Kosen and Koul, {Parvaiz A.} and Ai Koyanagi and Defo, {Barthelemy Kuate} and Kumar, {G. Anil} and Lal, {Dharmesh Kumar} and Prabhat Lamichhane and Leshargie, {Cheru Tesema} and Miriam Levi and Shanshan Li and Macarayan, {Erlyn Rachelle King} and Marek Majdan and Varshil Mehta and Addisu Melese and Memish, {Ziad A.} and Mengistu, {Desalegn Tadese} and Meretoja, {Tuomo J.} and Tomislav Mestrovic and Bartosz Miazgowski and Milne, {George J.} and Branko Milosevic and Mirrakhimov, {Erkin M.} and Babak Moazen and Mohammad, {Karzan Abdulmuhsin} and Shafiu Mohammed and Lorenzo Monasta and Lidia Morawska and Mousavi, {Seyyed Meysam} and Muhammed, {Oumer Sada S.} and Srinivas Murthy and Ghulam Mustafa and Aliya Naheed and {Huong Lan Thi Nguyen} and {Nam Ba Nguyen} and {Son Hoang Nguyen} and {Trang Huyen Nguyen} and Nisar, {Muhammad Imran} and Nixon, {Molly R.} and Ogbo, {Felix Akpojene} and Olagunju, {Andrew T.} and Olagunju, {Tinuke O.} and Eyal Oren and Ortiz, {Justin R.} and Mahesh, {P. A.} and Smita Pakhale and Shanti Patel and Deepak Paudel and Pigott, {David M.} and Postma, {Maarten J.} and Mostafa Qorbani and Anwar Rafay and Alireza Rafiei and Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar and Rai, {Rajesh Kumar} and Rezai, {Mohammad Sadegh} and Roberts, {Nicholas L. S.} and Luca Ronfani and Salvatore Rubino and Saeed Safari and Saeid Safiri and Zikria Saleem and Sambala, {Evanson Zondani} and Samy, {Abdallah M.} and Milicevic, {Milena M. Santric} and Benn Sartorius and Shahabeddin Sarvi and Miloje Savic and Monika Sawhney and Sonia Saxena and Seyedmojtaba Seyedmousavi and Shaikh, {Masood Ali} and Mehdi Sharif and Aziz Sheikh and Mika Shigematsu and Smith, {David L.} and Ranjani Somayaji and Soriano, {Joan B.} and Sreeramareddy, {Chandrashekhar T.} and Sufiyan, {Mu'awiyyah Babale} and Mohamad-Iani Temsah and Belay Tessema and Mebrahtu Teweldemedhin and Miguel Tortajada-Girbes and Tran, {Bach Xuan} and Tran, {Khanh Bao} and Tsadik, {Afewerki Gebremeskel} and Ukwaja, {Kingsley Nnanna} and Irfan Ullah and Vasankari, {Tommi Juhani} and Vollset, {Stein Emil} and Vu, {Giang Thu} and Wada, {Fiseha Wadilo} and Yasir Waheed and West, {T. Eoin} and Wiysonge, {Charles Shey} and Yimer, {Ebrahim M.} and Naohiro Yonemoto and Zoubida Zaidi and Theo Vos and Lim, {Stephen S.} and Murray, {Christopher J. L.} and Mokdad, {Ali H.} and Hay, {Simon I.} and Reiner, {Robert C.}",
year = "2019",
month = "1",
doi = "10.1016/S2213-2600(18)30496-X",
language = "English",
volume = "7",
pages = "69--89",
journal = "Lancet Respiratory Medicine",
issn = "2213-2619",
publisher = "Elsevier",
number = "1",

}

Mortality, morbidity, and hospitalisations due to influenza lower respiratory tract infections, 2017 : an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. / GBD 2017 Influenza Collaborators.

In: Lancet Respiratory Medicine, Vol. 7, No. 1, 01.2019, p. 69-89.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - Mortality, morbidity, and hospitalisations due to influenza lower respiratory tract infections, 2017

T2 - an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

AU - GBD 2017 Influenza Collaborators

AU - Troeger, Christopher E.

AU - Blacker, Brigette F.

AU - Khalil, Ibrahim A.

AU - Zimsen, Stephanie R. M.

AU - Albertson, Samuel B.

AU - Abate, Degu

AU - Abdela, Jemal

AU - Adhikari, Tara Ballav

AU - Aghayan, Sargis Aghasi

AU - Agrawal, Sutapa

AU - Ahmadi, Alireza

AU - Aichour, Amani Nidhal

AU - Aichour, Ibtihel

AU - Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine

AU - Al-Eyadhy, Ayman

AU - Al-Raddadi, Rajaa M.

AU - Alahdab, Fares

AU - Alene, Kefyalew Addis

AU - Aljunid, Syed Mohamed

AU - Alvis-Guzman, Nelson

AU - Anber, Nahla Hamed

AU - Anjomshoa, Mina

AU - Antonio, Carl Abelardo T.

AU - Aremu, Olatunde

AU - Atalay, Hagos Tasew

AU - Atique, Suleman

AU - Attia, Engi F.

AU - Avokpaho, Euripide F. G. A.

AU - Awasthi, Ashish

AU - Babazadeh, Arefeh

AU - Badali, Hamid

AU - Badawi, Alaa

AU - Banoub, Joseph Adel Mattar

AU - Barac, Aleksandra

AU - Bassat, Quique

AU - Bedi, Neeraj

AU - Belachew, Abate Bekele

AU - Bennett, Derrick A.

AU - Bhattacharyya, Krittika

AU - Bhutta, Zulfiqar A.

AU - Bijani, Ali

AU - Carvalho, Felix

AU - Castaneda-Orjuela, Carlos A.

AU - Christopher, Devasahayam J.

AU - Dandona, Lalit

AU - Dandona, Rakhi

AU - Dang, Anh Kim

AU - Daryani, Ahmad

AU - Degefa, Meaza Girma

AU - Demeke, Feleke Mekonnen

AU - Dhimal, Meghnath

AU - Djalalinia, Shirin

AU - Doku, David Teye

AU - Dubey, Manisha

AU - Dubljanin, Eleonora

AU - Duken, Eyasu Ejeta

AU - Edessa, Dumessa

AU - Zaki, Maysaa El Sayed

AU - Fakhim, Hamed

AU - Fernandes, Eduarda

AU - Fischer, Florian

AU - Flor, Luisa Sorio

AU - Foreman, Kyle J.

AU - Gebremichael, Teklu Gebrehiwo

AU - Geremew, Demeke

AU - Ghadiri, Keyghobad

AU - Goulart, Alessandra C.

AU - Guo, Jingwen

AU - Ha, Giang Hai

AU - Hailu, Gessessew Bugssa

AU - Haj-Mirzaian, Arvin

AU - Haj-Mirzaian, Arya

AU - Hamidi, Samer

AU - Hassen, Hamid Yimam

AU - Hoang, Chi Linh

AU - Horita, Nobuyuki

AU - Hostiuc, Mihaela

AU - Irvani, Seyed Sina Naghibi

AU - Jha, Ravi Prakash

AU - Jonas, Jost B.

AU - Kahsay, Amaha

AU - Karch, Andre

AU - Kasaeian, Amir

AU - Kassa, Tesfaye Dessale

AU - Kefale, Adane Teshome

AU - Khader, Yousef Saleh

AU - Khan, Ejaz Ahmad

AU - Khan, Gulfaraz

AU - Khan, Md Nuruzzaman

AU - Khang, Young-Ho

AU - Khoja, Abdullah T.

AU - Khubchandani, Jagdish

AU - Kimokoti, Ruth W.

AU - Kisa, Adnan

AU - Knibbs, Luke D.

AU - Kochhar, Sonali

AU - Kosen, Soewarta

AU - Koul, Parvaiz A.

AU - Koyanagi, Ai

AU - Defo, Barthelemy Kuate

AU - Kumar, G. Anil

AU - Lal, Dharmesh Kumar

AU - Lamichhane, Prabhat

AU - Leshargie, Cheru Tesema

AU - Levi, Miriam

AU - Li, Shanshan

AU - Macarayan, Erlyn Rachelle King

AU - Majdan, Marek

AU - Mehta, Varshil

AU - Melese, Addisu

AU - Memish, Ziad A.

AU - Mengistu, Desalegn Tadese

AU - Meretoja, Tuomo J.

AU - Mestrovic, Tomislav

AU - Miazgowski, Bartosz

AU - Milne, George J.

AU - Milosevic, Branko

AU - Mirrakhimov, Erkin M.

AU - Moazen, Babak

AU - Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin

AU - Mohammed, Shafiu

AU - Monasta, Lorenzo

AU - Morawska, Lidia

AU - Mousavi, Seyyed Meysam

AU - Muhammed, Oumer Sada S.

AU - Murthy, Srinivas

AU - Mustafa, Ghulam

AU - Naheed, Aliya

AU - Huong Lan Thi Nguyen, null

AU - Nam Ba Nguyen, null

AU - Son Hoang Nguyen, null

AU - Trang Huyen Nguyen, null

AU - Nisar, Muhammad Imran

AU - Nixon, Molly R.

AU - Ogbo, Felix Akpojene

AU - Olagunju, Andrew T.

AU - Olagunju, Tinuke O.

AU - Oren, Eyal

AU - Ortiz, Justin R.

AU - Mahesh, P. A.

AU - Pakhale, Smita

AU - Patel, Shanti

AU - Paudel, Deepak

AU - Pigott, David M.

AU - Postma, Maarten J.

AU - Qorbani, Mostafa

AU - Rafay, Anwar

AU - Rafiei, Alireza

AU - Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa

AU - Rai, Rajesh Kumar

AU - Rezai, Mohammad Sadegh

AU - Roberts, Nicholas L. S.

AU - Ronfani, Luca

AU - Rubino, Salvatore

AU - Safari, Saeed

AU - Safiri, Saeid

AU - Saleem, Zikria

AU - Sambala, Evanson Zondani

AU - Samy, Abdallah M.

AU - Milicevic, Milena M. Santric

AU - Sartorius, Benn

AU - Sarvi, Shahabeddin

AU - Savic, Miloje

AU - Sawhney, Monika

AU - Saxena, Sonia

AU - Seyedmousavi, Seyedmojtaba

AU - Shaikh, Masood Ali

AU - Sharif, Mehdi

AU - Sheikh, Aziz

AU - Shigematsu, Mika

AU - Smith, David L.

AU - Somayaji, Ranjani

AU - Soriano, Joan B.

AU - Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T.

AU - Sufiyan, Mu'awiyyah Babale

AU - Temsah, Mohamad-Iani

AU - Tessema, Belay

AU - Teweldemedhin, Mebrahtu

AU - Tortajada-Girbes, Miguel

AU - Tran, Bach Xuan

AU - Tran, Khanh Bao

AU - Tsadik, Afewerki Gebremeskel

AU - Ukwaja, Kingsley Nnanna

AU - Ullah, Irfan

AU - Vasankari, Tommi Juhani

AU - Vollset, Stein Emil

AU - Vu, Giang Thu

AU - Wada, Fiseha Wadilo

AU - Waheed, Yasir

AU - West, T. Eoin

AU - Wiysonge, Charles Shey

AU - Yimer, Ebrahim M.

AU - Yonemoto, Naohiro

AU - Zaidi, Zoubida

AU - Vos, Theo

AU - Lim, Stephen S.

AU - Murray, Christopher J. L.

AU - Mokdad, Ali H.

AU - Hay, Simon I.

AU - Reiner, Robert C.

PY - 2019/1

Y1 - 2019/1

N2 - Background Although the burden of influenza is often discussed in the context of historical pandemics and the threat of future pandemics, every year a substantial burden of lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs) and other respiratory conditions (like chronic obstructive pulmonary disease) are attributable to seasonal influenza. The Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2017 is a systematic scientific effort to quantify the health loss associated with a comprehensive set of diseases and disabilities. In this Article, we focus on LRTIs that can be attributed to influenza.Methods We modelled the LRTI incidence, hospitalisations, and mortality attributable to influenza for every country and selected subnational locations by age and year from 1990 to 2017 as part of GBD 2017. We used a counterfactual approach that first estimated the LRTI incidence, hospitalisations, and mortality and then attributed a fraction of those outcomes to influenza.Findings Influenza LRTI was responsible for an estimated 145 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 99 000-200 000) deaths among all ages in 2017. The influenza LRTI mortality rate was highest among adults older than 70 years (16.4 deaths per 100 000 [95% UI 11.6-21.9]), and the highest rate among all ages was in eastern Europe (5.2 per 100 000 population [95% UI 3.5-7.2]). We estimated that influenza LRTIs accounted for 9 459 000 (95% UI 3 709 000-22 935 000) hospitalisations due to LRTIs and 81 536 000 hospital days (24 330 000-259 851 000). We estimated that 11.5% (95% UI 10.0-12.9) of LRTI episodes were attributable to influenza, corresponding to 54 481 000 (38 465 000-73 864 000) episodes and 8 172 000 severe episodes (5 000 000-13 296 000).Interpretation This comprehensive assessment of the burden of influenza LRTIs shows the substantial annual effect of influenza on global health. Although preparedness planning will be important for potential pandemics, health loss due to seasonal influenza LRTIs should not be overlooked, and vaccine use should be considered. Efforts to improve influenza prevention measures are needed. Copyright (c) 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.

AB - Background Although the burden of influenza is often discussed in the context of historical pandemics and the threat of future pandemics, every year a substantial burden of lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs) and other respiratory conditions (like chronic obstructive pulmonary disease) are attributable to seasonal influenza. The Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2017 is a systematic scientific effort to quantify the health loss associated with a comprehensive set of diseases and disabilities. In this Article, we focus on LRTIs that can be attributed to influenza.Methods We modelled the LRTI incidence, hospitalisations, and mortality attributable to influenza for every country and selected subnational locations by age and year from 1990 to 2017 as part of GBD 2017. We used a counterfactual approach that first estimated the LRTI incidence, hospitalisations, and mortality and then attributed a fraction of those outcomes to influenza.Findings Influenza LRTI was responsible for an estimated 145 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 99 000-200 000) deaths among all ages in 2017. The influenza LRTI mortality rate was highest among adults older than 70 years (16.4 deaths per 100 000 [95% UI 11.6-21.9]), and the highest rate among all ages was in eastern Europe (5.2 per 100 000 population [95% UI 3.5-7.2]). We estimated that influenza LRTIs accounted for 9 459 000 (95% UI 3 709 000-22 935 000) hospitalisations due to LRTIs and 81 536 000 hospital days (24 330 000-259 851 000). We estimated that 11.5% (95% UI 10.0-12.9) of LRTI episodes were attributable to influenza, corresponding to 54 481 000 (38 465 000-73 864 000) episodes and 8 172 000 severe episodes (5 000 000-13 296 000).Interpretation This comprehensive assessment of the burden of influenza LRTIs shows the substantial annual effect of influenza on global health. Although preparedness planning will be important for potential pandemics, health loss due to seasonal influenza LRTIs should not be overlooked, and vaccine use should be considered. Efforts to improve influenza prevention measures are needed. Copyright (c) 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.

KW - BACTERIAL

KW - VACCINES

KW - VACCINATION

KW - PNEUMONIA

KW - CHILDREN

KW - AFRICA

U2 - 10.1016/S2213-2600(18)30496-X

DO - 10.1016/S2213-2600(18)30496-X

M3 - Article

VL - 7

SP - 69

EP - 89

JO - Lancet Respiratory Medicine

JF - Lancet Respiratory Medicine

SN - 2213-2619

IS - 1

ER -