Modelling Migration: Decisions, Processes and Outcomes

Jakub Bijak, Philip A. Higham, Jason Hilton, Martin Hinsch, Sarah Nurse, Toby Prike, Peter W.F. Smith, Oliver Reinhardt, Adelinde M. Uhrmacher

Research output: Chapter in Book/Conference paperConference paperpeer-review

2 Citations (Scopus)


Human migration is uncertain and complex, and some of its distinct features, such as migration routes, can emerge and change very rapidly. Agency of various actors is one key reason for why migration eludes attempts at its theoretical description, explanation and prediction. To address the complexity challenges through simulation models, which would coherently link micro-level decisions with macro-level processes, a coherent model design and construction process is needed. Here, we present such a process alongside its five building blocks: an agent-based simulation of migration route formation, resembling the recent asylum migration to Europe; an evaluation framework for migration data; psychological experiments eliciting decisions under uncertainty; the choice of a programming language and modelling formalisms; and statistical analysis with Bayesian meta-modelling based on Gaussian Process assumptions and experimental design principles. This process allows to identify knowledge advancements that can be achieved through modelling, and to elucidate the remaining knowledge gaps.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of the 2020 Winter Simulation Conference, WSC 2020
EditorsK.-H. Bae, B. Feng, S. Kim, S. Lazarova-Molnar, Z. Zheng, T. Roeder, R. Thiesing
PublisherIEEE, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers
Number of pages12
ISBN (Electronic)9781728194998
Publication statusPublished - 14 Dec 2020
Externally publishedYes
Event2020 Winter Simulation Conference, WSC 2020 - Orlando, United States
Duration: 14 Dec 202018 Dec 2020

Publication series

NameProceedings - Winter Simulation Conference
ISSN (Print)0891-7736


Conference2020 Winter Simulation Conference, WSC 2020
Abbreviated titleWSC 2020
Country/TerritoryUnited States


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