Joint gravitational wave - Gamma-ray burst detection rates for advanced detectors and beyond

The observational follow-up campaign of the gravitational wave (GW) multi-messenger event GW170817/GRB170817A has shown that the prompt γ-rays are consistent with a relativistic structured jet observed from a wide viewing angle. We model the structured jet profile of GRB170817A assuming a structured jet model to estimate the future joint GW/sGRB detection rates for LIGO and Virgo detectors. We show that, if the jet structured profile of GRB170817A is a relatively common feature of sGRBs, then there is a realistic probability of another off-axis coincident detection during the third aLIGO/Virgo observing run (O3). We also find that up to 4 yr^-1 joint events may be observed during the advanced LIGO run at design sensitivity and up to 10 yr^-1 by the upgraded advanced LIGO configuration A+. We show that the detection efficiencies for wide-angled sGRB emissions will be limited by GRB satellites as the GWdetection range increases through proposed upgrades. Therefore, although the number of coincident detections will increase with GWdetector sensitivity, the relative proportion of detected binary neutron stars with γ-ray counterparts will decrease; 11% for O3 down to 2% during A+.