Initialising reservoir models for history matching using pre-production 3D seismic data: Constraining methods and uncertainties

Integration of 3D and time-lapse 4D seismic data into reservoir modelling and history matching processes poses a significant challenge due to the frequent mismatch between the initial reservoir model, the true reservoir geology, and the pre-production (baseline) seismic data. A fundamental step of a reservoir characterisation and performance study is the preconditioning of the initial reservoir model to equally honour both the geological knowledge and seismic data. In this paper we analyse the issues that have a significant impact on the (mis)match of the initial reservoir model with well logs and inverted 3D seismic data. These issues include the constraining methods for reservoir lithofacies modelling, the sensitivity of the results to the presence of realistic resolution and noise in the seismic data, the geostatistical modelling parameters, and the uncertainties associated with quantitative incorporation of inverted seismic data in reservoir lithofacies modelling. We demonstrate that in a geostatistical lithofacies simulation process, seismic constraining methods based on seismic litho-probability curves and seismic litho-probability cubes yield the best match to the reference model, even when realistic resolution and noise is included in the dataset. In addition, our analyses show that quantitative incorporation of inverted 3D seismic data in static reservoir modelling carries a range of uncertainties and should be cautiously applied in order to minimise the risk of misinterpretation. These uncertainties are due to the limited vertical resolution of the seismic data compared to the scale of the geological heterogeneities, the fundamental instability of the inverse problem, and the non-unique elastic properties of different lithofacies types.