Impact of behavioural risk factors on death within 10 years for women and men in their 70s: absolute risk charts

A. Dobson, D. Mclaughlin, Osvaldo Almeida, W. Brown, J. Byles, Leon Flicker, J. Leung, Derrick Lopez, Kieran Mccaul, Graeme Hankey

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

5 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Background: Estimates of the absolute risk of death based on the combined effects of sex, age and health behaviours are scarce for elderly people. The aim of this paper is to calculate population based estimates and display them using simple charts that may be useful communication tools for public health authorities, health care providers and policy makers.Methods: Data were drawn from two concurrent prospective observational cohort studies of community-based older Australian women (N = 7,438) and men (N = 6,053) aged 71 to 79. The outcome measure was death within ten years. The predictor variables were: sex, age, smoking status, alcohol consumption, body mass index and physical activity.Results: Patterns of risks were similar in men and women but absolute risk of death was between 9 percentage points higher in men (17 %) than in women (8 %) in the lowest risk group (aged 71–73 years, never smoked, overweight, physically active and consumed alcohol weekly) and 21 % higher in men (73-74 %) than women (51-52 %) in the highest risk group (aged 77–79 years, normal weight or obese, current smoker, physically inactive and drink alcohol less than weekly).Conclusions: These absolute risk charts provide a tool for understanding the combined effects of behavioural risk factors for death among older people.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)669
JournalBMC Public Health
Volume12
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 17 Aug 2012

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Alcohols
Health Behavior
Health Policy
Administrative Personnel
Alcohol Drinking
Health Personnel
Observational Studies
Body Mass Index
Cohort Studies
Public Health
Smoking
Communication
Outcome Assessment (Health Care)
Exercise
Weights and Measures
Population

Cite this

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title = "Impact of behavioural risk factors on death within 10 years for women and men in their 70s: absolute risk charts",
abstract = "Background: Estimates of the absolute risk of death based on the combined effects of sex, age and health behaviours are scarce for elderly people. The aim of this paper is to calculate population based estimates and display them using simple charts that may be useful communication tools for public health authorities, health care providers and policy makers.Methods: Data were drawn from two concurrent prospective observational cohort studies of community-based older Australian women (N = 7,438) and men (N = 6,053) aged 71 to 79. The outcome measure was death within ten years. The predictor variables were: sex, age, smoking status, alcohol consumption, body mass index and physical activity.Results: Patterns of risks were similar in men and women but absolute risk of death was between 9 percentage points higher in men (17 {\%}) than in women (8 {\%}) in the lowest risk group (aged 71–73 years, never smoked, overweight, physically active and consumed alcohol weekly) and 21 {\%} higher in men (73-74 {\%}) than women (51-52 {\%}) in the highest risk group (aged 77–79 years, normal weight or obese, current smoker, physically inactive and drink alcohol less than weekly).Conclusions: These absolute risk charts provide a tool for understanding the combined effects of behavioural risk factors for death among older people.",
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Impact of behavioural risk factors on death within 10 years for women and men in their 70s: absolute risk charts. / Dobson, A.; Mclaughlin, D.; Almeida, Osvaldo; Brown, W.; Byles, J.; Flicker, Leon; Leung, J.; Lopez, Derrick; Mccaul, Kieran; Hankey, Graeme.

In: BMC Public Health, Vol. 12, 17.08.2012, p. 669.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

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AU - Mclaughlin, D.

AU - Almeida, Osvaldo

AU - Brown, W.

AU - Byles, J.

AU - Flicker, Leon

AU - Leung, J.

AU - Lopez, Derrick

AU - Mccaul, Kieran

AU - Hankey, Graeme

PY - 2012/8/17

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N2 - Background: Estimates of the absolute risk of death based on the combined effects of sex, age and health behaviours are scarce for elderly people. The aim of this paper is to calculate population based estimates and display them using simple charts that may be useful communication tools for public health authorities, health care providers and policy makers.Methods: Data were drawn from two concurrent prospective observational cohort studies of community-based older Australian women (N = 7,438) and men (N = 6,053) aged 71 to 79. The outcome measure was death within ten years. The predictor variables were: sex, age, smoking status, alcohol consumption, body mass index and physical activity.Results: Patterns of risks were similar in men and women but absolute risk of death was between 9 percentage points higher in men (17 %) than in women (8 %) in the lowest risk group (aged 71–73 years, never smoked, overweight, physically active and consumed alcohol weekly) and 21 % higher in men (73-74 %) than women (51-52 %) in the highest risk group (aged 77–79 years, normal weight or obese, current smoker, physically inactive and drink alcohol less than weekly).Conclusions: These absolute risk charts provide a tool for understanding the combined effects of behavioural risk factors for death among older people.

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