This study investigates the horizontal and residual circulations in Tokyo Bay using field observations, numerical simulations, and theoretical analysis. Numerical simulations show that the observed deepening of isopycnals and associated anticyclonic horizontal circulation in the bay head are mainly driven by negative wind stress curl. The effects of river discharge, surface heat fluxes, and tides are found to be small. Under strong wind events, the wind stress curl over the bay head can be large enough to make the surface Ekman layer strongly nonlinear. Theoretical and numerical analyses show that, under large negative wind stress curl, the nonlinearity tends to induce positive pumping velocity (at the base of the surface mixed layer) that counteracts the Ekman pumping; however, the typical duration of wind events in the bay head is not long enough to induce positive pumping under negative wind stress curl. These results and historical wind data suggest that the average horizontal circulation and residual circulation immediately below the surface mixed layer in Tokyo Bay are, respectively, cyclonic and convergent in summer but anticyclonic and divergent in winter. © 2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.