Globally coherent water cycle response to temperature change during the past two millennia

Bronwen L. Konecky; Nicholas P. McKay; Georgina M. Falster; Samantha L. Stevenson; Matt J. Fischer; Alyssa R. Atwood; Diane M. Thompson; Matthew D. Jones; Jonathan J. Tyler; Kristine L. DeLong; Belen Martrat; Elizabeth K. Thomas; Jessica L. Conroy; Sylvia G. Dee; Lukas Jonkers; Olga V. Churakova (Sidorova); Zoltán Kern; Thomas Opel; Trevor J. Porter; Hussein R. Sayani; Grzegorz Skrzypek; Nerilie J. Abram; Kerstin Braun; Matthieu Carré; Olivier Cartapanis; Laia Comas-Bru; Mark A. Curran; Emilie P. Dassié; Michael Deininger; Dmitry V. Divine; Alessandro Incarbona; Darrell S. Kaufman; Nikita Kaushal; Robert M. Klaebe; Hannah R. Kolus; Guillaume Leduc; Shreyas R. Managave; P. Graham Mortyn; Andrew D. Moy; Anais J. Orsi; Judson W. Partin; Heidi A. Roop; Marie Alexandrine Sicre; Lucien von Gunten; Kei Yoshimura

doi:10.1038/s41561-023-01291-3

Globally coherent water cycle response to temperature change during the past two millennia

Bronwen L. Konecky
, Nicholas P. McKay
, Georgina M. Falster
, Samantha L. Stevenson
, Matt J. Fischer
, Alyssa R. Atwood
, Diane M. Thompson
, Matthew D. Jones
, Jonathan J. Tyler
, Kristine L. DeLong
, Belen Martrat
, Elizabeth K. Thomas
, Jessica L. Conroy
, Sylvia G. Dee
, Lukas Jonkers
, Olga V. Churakova (Sidorova)
, Zoltán Kern
, Thomas Opel
, Trevor J. Porter
, Hussein R. Sayani

Grzegorz Skrzypek, Nerilie J. Abram, Kerstin Braun, Matthieu Carré, Olivier Cartapanis, Laia Comas-Bru, Mark A. Curran, Emilie P. Dassié, Michael Deininger, Dmitry V. Divine, Alessandro Incarbona, Darrell S. Kaufman, Nikita Kaushal, Robert M. Klaebe, Hannah R. Kolus, Guillaume Leduc, Shreyas R. Managave, P. Graham Mortyn, Andrew D. Moy, Anais J. Orsi, Judson W. Partin, Heidi A. Roop, Marie Alexandrine Sicre, Lucien von Gunten, Kei Yoshimura

School of Biological Sciences

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

41 Citations (Scopus)

189 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

The response of the global water cycle to changes in global surface temperature remains an outstanding question in future climate projections and in past climate reconstructions. The stable hydrogen and oxygen isotope compositions of precipitation (δ_precip), meteoric water (δ_MW) and seawater (δ_SW) integrate processes from microphysical to global scales and thus are uniquely positioned to track global hydroclimate variations. Here we evaluate global hydroclimate during the past 2,000 years using a globally distributed compilation of proxies for δ_precip, δ_MW and δ_SW. We show that global mean surface temperature exerted a coherent influence on global δ_precip and δ_MW throughout the past two millennia, driven by global ocean evaporation and condensation processes, with lower values during the Little Ice Age (1450–1850) and higher values after the onset of anthropogenic warming (~1850). The Pacific Walker Circulation is a predominant source of regional variability, particularly since 1850. Our results demonstrate rapid adjustments in global precipitation and atmospheric circulation patterns—within decades—as the planet warms and cools.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	997-1004
Number of pages	8
Journal	Nature Geoscience
Volume	16
Issue number	11
Early online date	2 Nov 2023
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-023-01291-3
Publication status	Published - Nov 2023

Funding

Funders	Funder number
ARC Australian Research Council	LP210300691, SR200100008, FT160100029, DP170100557, DP190102782, CE170100023

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10.1038/s41561-023-01291-3

AAM_Globally coherent water cycle response
This version of the article has been accepted for publication, after peer review (when applicable) and is subject to Springer Nature’s AM terms of use, but is not the Version of Record and does not reflect post-acceptance improvements, or any corrections. The Version of Record is available online at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41561-023-01291-3
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Cite this

Konecky, B. L., McKay, N. P., Falster, G. M., Stevenson, S. L., Fischer, M. J., Atwood, A. R., Thompson, D. M., Jones, M. D., Tyler, J. J., DeLong, K. L., Martrat, B., Thomas, E. K., Conroy, J. L., Dee, S. G., Jonkers, L., Churakova (Sidorova), O. V., Kern, Z., Opel, T., Porter, T. J., ... Yoshimura, K. (2023). Globally coherent water cycle response to temperature change during the past two millennia. Nature Geoscience, 16(11), 997-1004. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-023-01291-3

@article{575af268f96146e1a461f9da17e75123,

title = "Globally coherent water cycle response to temperature change during the past two millennia",

abstract = "The response of the global water cycle to changes in global surface temperature remains an outstanding question in future climate projections and in past climate reconstructions. The stable hydrogen and oxygen isotope compositions of precipitation (δprecip), meteoric water (δMW) and seawater (δSW) integrate processes from microphysical to global scales and thus are uniquely positioned to track global hydroclimate variations. Here we evaluate global hydroclimate during the past 2,000 years using a globally distributed compilation of proxies for δprecip, δMW and δSW. We show that global mean surface temperature exerted a coherent influence on global δprecip and δMW throughout the past two millennia, driven by global ocean evaporation and condensation processes, with lower values during the Little Ice Age (1450–1850) and higher values after the onset of anthropogenic warming (\textasciitilde{}1850). The Pacific Walker Circulation is a predominant source of regional variability, particularly since 1850. Our results demonstrate rapid adjustments in global precipitation and atmospheric circulation patterns—within decades—as the planet warms and cools.",

author = "Konecky, \{Bronwen L.\} and McKay, \{Nicholas P.\} and Falster, \{Georgina M.\} and Stevenson, \{Samantha L.\} and Fischer, \{Matt J.\} and Atwood, \{Alyssa R.\} and Thompson, \{Diane M.\} and Jones, \{Matthew D.\} and Tyler, \{Jonathan J.\} and DeLong, \{Kristine L.\} and Belen Martrat and Thomas, \{Elizabeth K.\} and Conroy, \{Jessica L.\} and Dee, \{Sylvia G.\} and Lukas Jonkers and \{Churakova (Sidorova)\}, \{Olga V.\} and Zolt{\'a}n Kern and Thomas Opel and Porter, \{Trevor J.\} and Sayani, \{Hussein R.\} and Grzegorz Skrzypek and Abram, \{Nerilie J.\} and Kerstin Braun and Matthieu Carr{\'e} and Olivier Cartapanis and Laia Comas-Bru and Curran, \{Mark A.\} and Dassi{\'e}, \{Emilie P.\} and Michael Deininger and Divine, \{Dmitry V.\} and Alessandro Incarbona and Kaufman, \{Darrell S.\} and Nikita Kaushal and Klaebe, \{Robert M.\} and Kolus, \{Hannah R.\} and Guillaume Leduc and Managave, \{Shreyas R.\} and Mortyn, \{P. Graham\} and Moy, \{Andrew D.\} and Orsi, \{Anais J.\} and Partin, \{Judson W.\} and Roop, \{Heidi A.\} and Sicre, \{Marie Alexandrine\} and \{von Gunten\}, Lucien and Kei Yoshimura",

note = "Funding Information: Iso2k is a contribution to Phase 3 and 4 of the PAGES 2k Network. PAGES received support from the Swiss Academy of Sciences, the US National Science Foundation and the Chinese Academy of Sciences. Support for this work includes NSF-AGS 1805141, NSF-AGS PRF 1433408 and a David and Lucile Packard Foundation Fellowship in Science and Engineering to B.L.K.; NSF-1948746 to N.P.M.; Australian Research Council through a Discovery Project (DP170100557) and the Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes (CE170100023) to G.M.F.; NSF-AGS 1805143 and NSF-OCE-2202794 to S.L.S.; NSF-CAREER 2145725, NSF 2103035 and NSF 2002444 to A.R.A.; NSF-CAREER 1945479, NSF 1931242 and NSF 2002460 to D.M.T.; Australian Research Council Discovery Project DP190102782 to J.J.T.; South Central Climate Adaptation Science Center Cooperative Agreement G19AC00086, NSF-2102931 and NSF-1805702 to K.L.D.; RYC‐2013‐14073 programme and LINKA20102 and CEX2018‐000794‐S projects to B.M.; NSF-EAR PRF 1349595, NSF-EAR-IF 1652274, NSF-OPP 1504267, NSF-OPP 1737716 and NSF-CAREER 2044616 to E.K.T.; NSF-CAREER 1847791 to J.L.C.; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration award number NA18OAR4310427 to S.G.D.; PalMod, the German palaeoclimate modelling initiative, part of the Research for Sustainable Development initiative funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF; 01LP1922A) to L.J.; RSF project 21-17-00006 to O.V.C.(S.); German Research Foundation grants OP217/2-1, OP217/3-1, OP217/4-1 to T.O.; Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada Discovery Grant RGPIN-2016-06730 to T.J.P.; Australian Research Council Project (LP210300691) to G.S.; Australian Research Council through a Future Fellowship (FT160100029), Special Research Initiative for the Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science (SR200100008) and the Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes (CE170100023) to N.J.A; Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada Discovery Grant RGPIN-2021-03888 to A.J.O.; and Australian Antarctic Science (AAS) grants 757, 4061, 4062 and 4537 to M.C. and A.M. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.",

year = "2023",

month = nov,

doi = "10.1038/s41561-023-01291-3",

language = "English",

volume = "16",

pages = "997--1004",

journal = "Nature Geoscience",

issn = "1752-0894",

publisher = "Nature Publishing Group",

number = "11",

}

Konecky, BL, McKay, NP, Falster, GM, Stevenson, SL, Fischer, MJ, Atwood, AR, Thompson, DM, Jones, MD, Tyler, JJ, DeLong, KL, Martrat, B, Thomas, EK, Conroy, JL, Dee, SG, Jonkers, L, Churakova (Sidorova), OV, Kern, Z, Opel, T, Porter, TJ, Sayani, HR, Skrzypek, G, Abram, NJ, Braun, K, Carré, M, Cartapanis, O, Comas-Bru, L, Curran, MA, Dassié, EP, Deininger, M, Divine, DV, Incarbona, A, Kaufman, DS, Kaushal, N, Klaebe, RM, Kolus, HR, Leduc, G, Managave, SR, Mortyn, PG, Moy, AD, Orsi, AJ, Partin, JW, Roop, HA, Sicre, MA, von Gunten, L & Yoshimura, K 2023, 'Globally coherent water cycle response to temperature change during the past two millennia', Nature Geoscience, vol. 16, no. 11, pp. 997-1004. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-023-01291-3

TY - JOUR

T1 - Globally coherent water cycle response to temperature change during the past two millennia

AU - Konecky, Bronwen L.

AU - McKay, Nicholas P.

AU - Falster, Georgina M.

AU - Stevenson, Samantha L.

AU - Fischer, Matt J.

AU - Atwood, Alyssa R.

AU - Thompson, Diane M.

AU - Jones, Matthew D.

AU - Tyler, Jonathan J.

AU - DeLong, Kristine L.

AU - Martrat, Belen

AU - Thomas, Elizabeth K.

AU - Conroy, Jessica L.

AU - Dee, Sylvia G.

AU - Jonkers, Lukas

AU - Churakova (Sidorova), Olga V.

AU - Kern, Zoltán

AU - Opel, Thomas

AU - Porter, Trevor J.

AU - Sayani, Hussein R.

AU - Skrzypek, Grzegorz

AU - Abram, Nerilie J.

AU - Braun, Kerstin

AU - Carré, Matthieu

AU - Cartapanis, Olivier

AU - Comas-Bru, Laia

AU - Curran, Mark A.

AU - Dassié, Emilie P.

AU - Deininger, Michael

AU - Divine, Dmitry V.

AU - Incarbona, Alessandro

AU - Kaufman, Darrell S.

AU - Kaushal, Nikita

AU - Klaebe, Robert M.

AU - Kolus, Hannah R.

AU - Leduc, Guillaume

AU - Managave, Shreyas R.

AU - Mortyn, P. Graham

AU - Moy, Andrew D.

AU - Orsi, Anais J.

AU - Partin, Judson W.

AU - Roop, Heidi A.

AU - Sicre, Marie Alexandrine

AU - von Gunten, Lucien

AU - Yoshimura, Kei

N1 - Funding Information: Iso2k is a contribution to Phase 3 and 4 of the PAGES 2k Network. PAGES received support from the Swiss Academy of Sciences, the US National Science Foundation and the Chinese Academy of Sciences. Support for this work includes NSF-AGS 1805141, NSF-AGS PRF 1433408 and a David and Lucile Packard Foundation Fellowship in Science and Engineering to B.L.K.; NSF-1948746 to N.P.M.; Australian Research Council through a Discovery Project (DP170100557) and the Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes (CE170100023) to G.M.F.; NSF-AGS 1805143 and NSF-OCE-2202794 to S.L.S.; NSF-CAREER 2145725, NSF 2103035 and NSF 2002444 to A.R.A.; NSF-CAREER 1945479, NSF 1931242 and NSF 2002460 to D.M.T.; Australian Research Council Discovery Project DP190102782 to J.J.T.; South Central Climate Adaptation Science Center Cooperative Agreement G19AC00086, NSF-2102931 and NSF-1805702 to K.L.D.; RYC‐2013‐14073 programme and LINKA20102 and CEX2018‐000794‐S projects to B.M.; NSF-EAR PRF 1349595, NSF-EAR-IF 1652274, NSF-OPP 1504267, NSF-OPP 1737716 and NSF-CAREER 2044616 to E.K.T.; NSF-CAREER 1847791 to J.L.C.; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration award number NA18OAR4310427 to S.G.D.; PalMod, the German palaeoclimate modelling initiative, part of the Research for Sustainable Development initiative funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF; 01LP1922A) to L.J.; RSF project 21-17-00006 to O.V.C.(S.); German Research Foundation grants OP217/2-1, OP217/3-1, OP217/4-1 to T.O.; Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada Discovery Grant RGPIN-2016-06730 to T.J.P.; Australian Research Council Project (LP210300691) to G.S.; Australian Research Council through a Future Fellowship (FT160100029), Special Research Initiative for the Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science (SR200100008) and the Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes (CE170100023) to N.J.A; Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada Discovery Grant RGPIN-2021-03888 to A.J.O.; and Australian Antarctic Science (AAS) grants 757, 4061, 4062 and 4537 to M.C. and A.M. Publisher Copyright: © 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.

PY - 2023/11

Y1 - 2023/11

N2 - The response of the global water cycle to changes in global surface temperature remains an outstanding question in future climate projections and in past climate reconstructions. The stable hydrogen and oxygen isotope compositions of precipitation (δprecip), meteoric water (δMW) and seawater (δSW) integrate processes from microphysical to global scales and thus are uniquely positioned to track global hydroclimate variations. Here we evaluate global hydroclimate during the past 2,000 years using a globally distributed compilation of proxies for δprecip, δMW and δSW. We show that global mean surface temperature exerted a coherent influence on global δprecip and δMW throughout the past two millennia, driven by global ocean evaporation and condensation processes, with lower values during the Little Ice Age (1450–1850) and higher values after the onset of anthropogenic warming (~1850). The Pacific Walker Circulation is a predominant source of regional variability, particularly since 1850. Our results demonstrate rapid adjustments in global precipitation and atmospheric circulation patterns—within decades—as the planet warms and cools.

AB - The response of the global water cycle to changes in global surface temperature remains an outstanding question in future climate projections and in past climate reconstructions. The stable hydrogen and oxygen isotope compositions of precipitation (δprecip), meteoric water (δMW) and seawater (δSW) integrate processes from microphysical to global scales and thus are uniquely positioned to track global hydroclimate variations. Here we evaluate global hydroclimate during the past 2,000 years using a globally distributed compilation of proxies for δprecip, δMW and δSW. We show that global mean surface temperature exerted a coherent influence on global δprecip and δMW throughout the past two millennia, driven by global ocean evaporation and condensation processes, with lower values during the Little Ice Age (1450–1850) and higher values after the onset of anthropogenic warming (~1850). The Pacific Walker Circulation is a predominant source of regional variability, particularly since 1850. Our results demonstrate rapid adjustments in global precipitation and atmospheric circulation patterns—within decades—as the planet warms and cools.

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85175579933

U2 - 10.1038/s41561-023-01291-3

DO - 10.1038/s41561-023-01291-3

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85175579933

SN - 1752-0894

VL - 16

SP - 997

EP - 1004

JO - Nature Geoscience

JF - Nature Geoscience

IS - 11

ER -

Globally coherent water cycle response to temperature change during the past two millennia

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Unsaturated zone functioning in semi-arid flash flood driven climate.

The Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science

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Globally coherent water cycle response to temperature change during the past two millennia

Abstract

Funding

Access to Document

Other files and links

Fingerprint

Projects

Unsaturated zone functioning in semi-arid flash flood driven climate.

The Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science

Cite this