Genomic evidence for West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse during the Last Interglacial

Sally C.Y. Lau; Nerida G. Wilson; Nicholas R. Golledge; Tim R. Naish; Phillip C. Watts; Catarina N.S. Silva; Ira R. Cooke; A. Louise Allcock; Felix C. Mark; Katrin Linse; Jan M. Strugnell

doi:10.1126/science.ade0664

Genomic evidence for West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse during the Last Interglacial

Sally C.Y. Lau, Nerida G. Wilson, Nicholas R. Golledge, Tim R. Naish, Phillip C. Watts, Catarina N.S. Silva, Ira R. Cooke, A. Louise Allcock, Felix C. Mark, Katrin Linse, Jan M. Strugnell

School of Biological Sciences

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

14 Citations (Web of Science)

Abstract

The marine-based West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is considered vulnerable to irreversible collapse under future climate trajectories, and its tipping point may lie within the mitigated warming scenarios of 1.5° to 2°C of the United Nations Paris Agreement. Knowledge of ice loss during similarly warm past climates could resolve this uncertainty, including the Last Interglacial when global sea levels were 5 to 10 meters higher than today and global average temperatures were 0.5° to 1.5°C warmer than preindustrial levels. Using a panel of genome-wide, single-nucleotide polymorphisms of a circum-Antarctic octopus, we show persistent, historic signals of gene flow only possible with complete WAIS collapse. Our results provide the first empirical evidence that the tipping point of WAIS loss could be reached even under stringent climate mitigation scenarios.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	1384-1390
Number of pages	7
Journal	Science
Volume	382
Issue number	6677
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1126/science.ade0664
Publication status	Published - 22 Dec 2023

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@article{1d21d887d9404efb8a92c17af525c0e1,

title = "Genomic evidence for West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse during the Last Interglacial",

abstract = "The marine-based West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is considered vulnerable to irreversible collapse under future climate trajectories, and its tipping point may lie within the mitigated warming scenarios of 1.5° to 2°C of the United Nations Paris Agreement. Knowledge of ice loss during similarly warm past climates could resolve this uncertainty, including the Last Interglacial when global sea levels were 5 to 10 meters higher than today and global average temperatures were 0.5° to 1.5°C warmer than preindustrial levels. Using a panel of genome-wide, single-nucleotide polymorphisms of a circum-Antarctic octopus, we show persistent, historic signals of gene flow only possible with complete WAIS collapse. Our results provide the first empirical evidence that the tipping point of WAIS loss could be reached even under stringent climate mitigation scenarios.",

author = "Lau, {Sally C.Y.} and Wilson, {Nerida G.} and Golledge, {Nicholas R.} and Naish, {Tim R.} and Watts, {Phillip C.} and Silva, {Catarina N.S.} and Cooke, {Ira R.} and Allcock, {A. Louise} and Mark, {Felix C.} and Katrin Linse and Strugnell, {Jan M.}",

note = "Funding Information: We thank the Australian Antarctic Division (AAD), Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research (AWI), British Antarctic Survey (BAS), Museum Victoria (MV), National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), and G. Jackson for assistance and samples for genetic analysis. We are grateful to T. Jernfors (University of Jyv{\"a}skyl{\"a}) for sequencing assistance. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2023 American Association for the Advancement of Science. All rights reserved.",

year = "2023",

month = dec,

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doi = "10.1126/science.ade0664",

language = "English",

volume = "382",

pages = "1384--1390",

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AU - Lau, Sally C.Y.

AU - Wilson, Nerida G.

AU - Golledge, Nicholas R.

AU - Naish, Tim R.

AU - Watts, Phillip C.

AU - Silva, Catarina N.S.

AU - Cooke, Ira R.

AU - Allcock, A. Louise

AU - Mark, Felix C.

AU - Linse, Katrin

AU - Strugnell, Jan M.

N1 - Funding Information: We thank the Australian Antarctic Division (AAD), Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research (AWI), British Antarctic Survey (BAS), Museum Victoria (MV), National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), and G. Jackson for assistance and samples for genetic analysis. We are grateful to T. Jernfors (University of Jyväskylä) for sequencing assistance. Publisher Copyright: © 2023 American Association for the Advancement of Science. All rights reserved.

PY - 2023/12/22

Y1 - 2023/12/22

N2 - The marine-based West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is considered vulnerable to irreversible collapse under future climate trajectories, and its tipping point may lie within the mitigated warming scenarios of 1.5° to 2°C of the United Nations Paris Agreement. Knowledge of ice loss during similarly warm past climates could resolve this uncertainty, including the Last Interglacial when global sea levels were 5 to 10 meters higher than today and global average temperatures were 0.5° to 1.5°C warmer than preindustrial levels. Using a panel of genome-wide, single-nucleotide polymorphisms of a circum-Antarctic octopus, we show persistent, historic signals of gene flow only possible with complete WAIS collapse. Our results provide the first empirical evidence that the tipping point of WAIS loss could be reached even under stringent climate mitigation scenarios.

AB - The marine-based West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is considered vulnerable to irreversible collapse under future climate trajectories, and its tipping point may lie within the mitigated warming scenarios of 1.5° to 2°C of the United Nations Paris Agreement. Knowledge of ice loss during similarly warm past climates could resolve this uncertainty, including the Last Interglacial when global sea levels were 5 to 10 meters higher than today and global average temperatures were 0.5° to 1.5°C warmer than preindustrial levels. Using a panel of genome-wide, single-nucleotide polymorphisms of a circum-Antarctic octopus, we show persistent, historic signals of gene flow only possible with complete WAIS collapse. Our results provide the first empirical evidence that the tipping point of WAIS loss could be reached even under stringent climate mitigation scenarios.

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SP - 1384

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JO - Science

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Genomic evidence for West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse during the Last Interglacial

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