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Abstract
An empirical model was developed to forecast Pea seed-borne mosaic virus (PSbMV) incidence at a critical phase of the annual growing season to predict yield loss in field pea crops sown under Mediterranean-type conditions. The model uses pre-growing season rainfall to calculate an index of aphid abundance in early-August which, in combination with PSbMV infection level in seed sown, is used to forecast virus crop incidence. Using predicted PSbMV crop incidence in early-August and day of sowing, PSbMV transmission from harvested seed was also predicted, albeit less accurately. The model was developed so it provides forecasts before sowing to allow sufficient time to implement control recommendations, such as having representative seed samples tested for PSbMV transmission rate to seedlings, obtaining seed with minimal PSbMV infection or of a PSbMV-resistant cultivar, and implementation of cultural management strategies. The model provides a disease forecast risk indication, taking into account predicted percentage yield loss to PSbMV infection and economic factors involved in field pea production. This disease risk forecast delivers location-specific recommendations regarding PSbMV management to end-users. These recommendations will be delivered directly to end-users via SMS alerts with links to web support that provide information on PSbMV management options. This modelling and decision support system approach would likely be suitable for use in other world regions where field pea is grown in similar Mediterranean-type environments.
Original language | English |
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Pages (from-to) | 163-171 |
Number of pages | 9 |
Journal | Virus Research |
Volume | 241 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - 15 Sept 2017 |
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Dive into the research topics of 'Forecasting model for Pea seed-borne mosaic virus epidemics in field pea crops in a Mediterranean-type environment'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.Projects
- 1 Finished
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Determination of factors responsible for aphid-borne pea seed-borne mosaic virus epidemics in peas and development of effective virus management tools
Jones, R. (Investigator 01), Renton, M. (Investigator 02) & Coutts, B. (Investigator 03)
ARC Australian Research Council , Department of Enterprise, Investment and Trade (New South Wales), Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development (Western Australia)
1/01/12 → 31/12/16
Project: Research