Fault prediction and modelling in transport networks

Engineered transport networks occur in many domains: road networks, power grids, the internet and utility distribution. Such networks present a generic problem - how does one model and predict failure of components within them? In this paper we will use the example of a metropolitan water distribution network to model and predict failure based on topology, topological network distance, and spatial-temporal geographical distance. We show that certain topologies are either more or less likely to fail than chance, and that co-occurrence of failure within certain geographical distances can be reliably modelled and predicted in certain specific circumstances.