TY - JOUR
T1 - Excess seawater nutrients, enlarged algal symbiont densities and bleaching sensitive reef locations
T2 - 2. A regional-scale predictive model for the Great Barrier Reef, Australia
AU - Wooldridge, Scott A.
AU - Heron, Scott F.
AU - Brodie, Jon E.
AU - Done, Terence J.
AU - Masiri, Itsara
AU - Hinrichs, Saskia
PY - 2017/1/15
Y1 - 2017/1/15
N2 - A spatial risk assessment model is developed for the Great Barrier Reef (GBR, Australia) that helps identify reef locations at higher or lower risk of coral bleaching in summer heat-wave conditions. The model confirms the considerable benefit of discriminating nutrient-enriched areas that contain corals with enlarged (suboptimal) symbiont densities for the purpose of identifying bleaching-sensitive reef locations. The benefit of the new system-level understanding is showcased in terms of: (i) improving early-warning forecasts of summer bleaching risk, (ii) explaining historical bleaching patterns, (iii) testing the bleaching-resistant quality of the current marine protected area (MPA) network (iv) identifying routinely monitored coral health attributes, such as the tissue energy reserves and skeletal growth characteristics (viz. density and extension rates) that correlate with bleaching resistant reef locations, and (v) targeting region-specific water quality improvement strategies that may increase reef-scale coral health and bleaching resistance.
AB - A spatial risk assessment model is developed for the Great Barrier Reef (GBR, Australia) that helps identify reef locations at higher or lower risk of coral bleaching in summer heat-wave conditions. The model confirms the considerable benefit of discriminating nutrient-enriched areas that contain corals with enlarged (suboptimal) symbiont densities for the purpose of identifying bleaching-sensitive reef locations. The benefit of the new system-level understanding is showcased in terms of: (i) improving early-warning forecasts of summer bleaching risk, (ii) explaining historical bleaching patterns, (iii) testing the bleaching-resistant quality of the current marine protected area (MPA) network (iv) identifying routinely monitored coral health attributes, such as the tissue energy reserves and skeletal growth characteristics (viz. density and extension rates) that correlate with bleaching resistant reef locations, and (v) targeting region-specific water quality improvement strategies that may increase reef-scale coral health and bleaching resistance.
KW - Bayesian Belief Network (BBN)
KW - Coral bleaching resistance
KW - Coral calcification
KW - Coral cores
KW - Coral health
KW - Marine protected area (MPA)
KW - Resilience
KW - Water quality
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85009060596&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2016.09.045
DO - 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2016.09.045
M3 - Article
C2 - 27692486
VL - 114
SP - 343
EP - 354
JO - Marine Pollution Bulletin
JF - Marine Pollution Bulletin
SN - 0025-326X
IS - 1
ER -