@article{0a7b7d546ccf4028af25ef55661462c4,
title = "Emulation of a Chemical Transport Model to Assess Air Quality under Future Emission Scenarios for the Southwest of Western Australia",
abstract = "Simulation outputs from chemical transport models (CTMs) are essential to plan effective air quality policies. A key strength of these models is their ability to separate out source-specific components which facilitate the simulation of the potential impact of policy on future air quality. However, configuring and running these models is complex and computationally intensive, making the evaluation of multiple scenarios less accessible to many researchers and policy experts. The aim of this work is to present how Gaussian process emulation can provide a top-down approach to interrogating and interpreting the outputs from CTMs at minimal computational cost. A case study is presented (based on fine particle sources in the southwest of Western Australia) to illustrate how an emulator can be constructed to simultaneously evaluate changes in emissions from on-road transport and electricity sectors. This study demonstrates how emulation provides a flexible way of exploring local impacts of electric vehicles and wider regional effects of emissions from electricity generation. The potential for emulators to be applied to other settings involving air quality research is discussed.",
keywords = "air quality, chemical transport modelling, emulation, fine particulate matter, future scenarios",
author = "{Vander Hoorn}, Stephen and Johnson, {Jill S.} and Kevin Murray and Robin Smit and Jane Heyworth and Sean Lam and Martin Cope",
note = "Funding Information: This study was supported by the National Social Science Foundation of China under grant no. 21CZZ007, the Tianjin Social Science Foundation of China, under grant no. TJGLQN20-001, the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation under grant no. 2020M670636, the Liberal Arts Development Foundation of Nankai University under grant no. ZB22BZ0332, and the R&D Program of Beijing Municipal Education Commission under grant no. SM202110017003, awarded to the fourth author (Jun Zhang). URL of the funding website: http://jw.beijing.gov.cn/kyc/ (accessed on 14 December 2022). Funding Information: S.V. received a Research Training Program Stipend from the Australian commonwealth government and PhD Scholarship from NHMRC funded Centre for Air pollution, energy and health Research (NHMRC APP1116412). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2022 by the authors.",
year = "2022",
month = dec,
doi = "10.3390/atmos13122009",
language = "English",
volume = "13",
journal = "Atmosphere",
issn = "2073-4433",
publisher = "MDPI Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute",
number = "12",
}