Electric vehicles' impact on energy balance: Three-country comparison

The integration of electric vehicles (EVs) powered by renewable energy sources represents a crucial step towards achieving sustainable and energy-efficient transport systems. However, the increasing adoption of EVs will require changes in the energy matrix due to higher electricity consumption. This study presents a forecasting model that integrates the evolution of electricity supply from both renewable and non-renewable sources, with scenarios of demand growth driven by transport electrification. Based on historical data (2006–2022) from Australia, Brazil, and Canada, and considering three achievable premises (fossil fuels will be gradually abandoned, renewable electricity generation will continue to grow at current rates, and current fleets will be renewed/replaced by EVs) nonlinear regressions are applied to explain the transition to renewable energy and to forecast energy balance until 2050. The results show that demand would exceed the electricity supply in Australia and Canada (around 2029 and 2031), with Brazil showing more resilience (demand surpassing supply in 2038). To avoid demand-supply disruptions, the annual growth in electricity supply from renewable sources must intensify, from their current levels of 10.3, 14.7, and 3.2 TWh, to about 16.3, 25.4, and 18.1 TWh for the next twenty years in Australia, Brazil, and Canada respectively. The models can be used to evaluate trajectories of the evolution of EV adoption and their impact on the energy matrix in different countries.