Economic reform in Europe and the former Soviet Union: implications for international food markets

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Abstract

Three scenarios addressing the effects of the reforms of food demand and supply are considered here. The first is a reference against which the others can be compared. In the second, agriculture recovers slowly, and in the third, general recovery is more prompt. It is assumed that the disruption due to nationalist conflicts will abate and that countries in the region will not return to totalitarian regimes or centrally planned economies. A model, is fully dynamic in order to examine the path of adjustment to shocks or changes in food policy, but also estimates the net effects of prices and quantities following full adjustment by farmers and policymakers. The model only looks at the major food staples. The anticipated gains under the high-growth scenario are about the same for all foods except dairy products, where the potential in the former Soviet Union seems particularly large. Productivity efficiency in Eastern Europe is expected to improve to the level of Western Europe by 2010, whereas the former Soviet Union is expected to close only half of the gap by that time. -from Author

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)245-277
JournalJournal of Economic Integration
Volume99
Publication statusPublished - 1994

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