Do Pre-Clinical Summative Assessments Predict a Student's Clinical Performance? A Retrospective Study

Introduction: Dental students are deemed fit to treat patients (clinical readiness) based on their performance in pre-clinical summative assessments. This involves assessing knowledge (theory exams) and technical skills (simulation-based activities). However, there is weak evidence to support whether these pre-clinical assessments accurately predict clinical performance. The aim of this study was to determine if pre-clinical summative assessments predicted the clinical performance of students in a graduate dental programme. Materials and Methods: This retrospective longitudinal cohort study analysed the results of pre-clinical (theory, simulation) and clinical summative assessments in Restorative Dentistry, Periodontics and Endodontics from six cohorts of second- and third-year students (2013 to 2019) enrolled in The University of Sydney's Doctor of Dental Medicine program. The association between pre-clinical (theory and simulation) marks with clinical marks were analysed by discipline using Pearson's correlation coefficient (r2).Results: A weak but significant positive correlation was found between a student's pre-clinical theory mark and their clinical performance in all three disciplines. The only significant positive correlation between pre-clinical simulation marks and clinical performance was found in Restorative Dentistry. Discussion: While some positive correlations were found between pre-clinical and clinical performance, overall, these results indicate that pre-clinical ability was not a reliable predictor of a student's clinical competence. Conclusions: Assessing clinical readiness is complex. Our results indicate this attribute may potentially be better assessed using a range of qualitative and quantitative metrics. Further research is required to better define and quantify clinical readiness.