Development of a multi-criteria spatial planning support system for growth potential modelling in the Western Cape, South Africa

Adriaan Van Niekerk, D. Du Plessis, I. Boonzaaier, M. Spocter, S. Ferreira, L. Loots, R. Donaldson

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    12 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. Growth potential modelling is useful as it provides insight into which settlements in a region are likely to experience growth and which areas are likely to decline. However, growth potential modelling is an ill-structured problem as there is no universally-agreed set of criteria (parameters) that can be combined in a particular way (rules) to provide a definitive growth potential measure (solution). In this paper we address the ill-structured problem of growth potential modelling by combining multi-criteria decision making (MCDM), geographical information systems (GIS) and planning support systems (PPS) to generate a number of growth scenarios for settlements in Western Cape province of South Africa. A new framework and methodology for selecting, structuring and analysing multiple growth potential criteria is proposed. The framework, based on the principles of innovation potential and growth preconditions, was applied to demonstrate how it can be used to identify a series of candidate criteria relating to the growth potential of settlements. The criteria were subjected to a MCDM process involving criteria selection, weighting and normalisation. Two criteria sets, weighting schemes and normalisation methods were considered. Two different classification techniques were also evaluated. A total of 16 scenarios were generated using a newly-developed growth potential PPS (GPPSS). The paper shows how the GPPSS can be used to quantitatively and qualitatively assess the various scenarios and to select the most appropriate solution.
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)179-193
    JournalLand Use Policy
    Volume50
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2016

    Fingerprint

    support systems
    spatial planning
    multi-criteria decision making
    South Africa
    planning
    modeling
    selection criteria
    geographic information systems
    methodology
    normalization
    scenario
    weighting
    innovation potential
    decision making
    Africa
    decision making criterion
    decision making process
    Geographical Information System
    innovation
    candidacy

    Cite this

    Van Niekerk, A., Du Plessis, D., Boonzaaier, I., Spocter, M., Ferreira, S., Loots, L., & Donaldson, R. (2016). Development of a multi-criteria spatial planning support system for growth potential modelling in the Western Cape, South Africa. Land Use Policy, 50, 179-193. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2015.09.014
    Van Niekerk, Adriaan ; Du Plessis, D. ; Boonzaaier, I. ; Spocter, M. ; Ferreira, S. ; Loots, L. ; Donaldson, R. / Development of a multi-criteria spatial planning support system for growth potential modelling in the Western Cape, South Africa. In: Land Use Policy. 2016 ; Vol. 50. pp. 179-193.
    @article{b9158281fac64bdaa1d3ecc955c6dace,
    title = "Development of a multi-criteria spatial planning support system for growth potential modelling in the Western Cape, South Africa",
    abstract = "{\circledC} 2015 Elsevier Ltd. Growth potential modelling is useful as it provides insight into which settlements in a region are likely to experience growth and which areas are likely to decline. However, growth potential modelling is an ill-structured problem as there is no universally-agreed set of criteria (parameters) that can be combined in a particular way (rules) to provide a definitive growth potential measure (solution). In this paper we address the ill-structured problem of growth potential modelling by combining multi-criteria decision making (MCDM), geographical information systems (GIS) and planning support systems (PPS) to generate a number of growth scenarios for settlements in Western Cape province of South Africa. A new framework and methodology for selecting, structuring and analysing multiple growth potential criteria is proposed. The framework, based on the principles of innovation potential and growth preconditions, was applied to demonstrate how it can be used to identify a series of candidate criteria relating to the growth potential of settlements. The criteria were subjected to a MCDM process involving criteria selection, weighting and normalisation. Two criteria sets, weighting schemes and normalisation methods were considered. Two different classification techniques were also evaluated. A total of 16 scenarios were generated using a newly-developed growth potential PPS (GPPSS). The paper shows how the GPPSS can be used to quantitatively and qualitatively assess the various scenarios and to select the most appropriate solution.",
    author = "{Van Niekerk}, Adriaan and {Du Plessis}, D. and I. Boonzaaier and M. Spocter and S. Ferreira and L. Loots and R. Donaldson",
    year = "2016",
    doi = "10.1016/j.landusepol.2015.09.014",
    language = "English",
    volume = "50",
    pages = "179--193",
    journal = "Land Use Policy",
    issn = "0264-8377",
    publisher = "Elsevier",

    }

    Van Niekerk, A, Du Plessis, D, Boonzaaier, I, Spocter, M, Ferreira, S, Loots, L & Donaldson, R 2016, 'Development of a multi-criteria spatial planning support system for growth potential modelling in the Western Cape, South Africa' Land Use Policy, vol. 50, pp. 179-193. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2015.09.014

    Development of a multi-criteria spatial planning support system for growth potential modelling in the Western Cape, South Africa. / Van Niekerk, Adriaan; Du Plessis, D.; Boonzaaier, I.; Spocter, M.; Ferreira, S.; Loots, L.; Donaldson, R.

    In: Land Use Policy, Vol. 50, 2016, p. 179-193.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    TY - JOUR

    T1 - Development of a multi-criteria spatial planning support system for growth potential modelling in the Western Cape, South Africa

    AU - Van Niekerk, Adriaan

    AU - Du Plessis, D.

    AU - Boonzaaier, I.

    AU - Spocter, M.

    AU - Ferreira, S.

    AU - Loots, L.

    AU - Donaldson, R.

    PY - 2016

    Y1 - 2016

    N2 - © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. Growth potential modelling is useful as it provides insight into which settlements in a region are likely to experience growth and which areas are likely to decline. However, growth potential modelling is an ill-structured problem as there is no universally-agreed set of criteria (parameters) that can be combined in a particular way (rules) to provide a definitive growth potential measure (solution). In this paper we address the ill-structured problem of growth potential modelling by combining multi-criteria decision making (MCDM), geographical information systems (GIS) and planning support systems (PPS) to generate a number of growth scenarios for settlements in Western Cape province of South Africa. A new framework and methodology for selecting, structuring and analysing multiple growth potential criteria is proposed. The framework, based on the principles of innovation potential and growth preconditions, was applied to demonstrate how it can be used to identify a series of candidate criteria relating to the growth potential of settlements. The criteria were subjected to a MCDM process involving criteria selection, weighting and normalisation. Two criteria sets, weighting schemes and normalisation methods were considered. Two different classification techniques were also evaluated. A total of 16 scenarios were generated using a newly-developed growth potential PPS (GPPSS). The paper shows how the GPPSS can be used to quantitatively and qualitatively assess the various scenarios and to select the most appropriate solution.

    AB - © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. Growth potential modelling is useful as it provides insight into which settlements in a region are likely to experience growth and which areas are likely to decline. However, growth potential modelling is an ill-structured problem as there is no universally-agreed set of criteria (parameters) that can be combined in a particular way (rules) to provide a definitive growth potential measure (solution). In this paper we address the ill-structured problem of growth potential modelling by combining multi-criteria decision making (MCDM), geographical information systems (GIS) and planning support systems (PPS) to generate a number of growth scenarios for settlements in Western Cape province of South Africa. A new framework and methodology for selecting, structuring and analysing multiple growth potential criteria is proposed. The framework, based on the principles of innovation potential and growth preconditions, was applied to demonstrate how it can be used to identify a series of candidate criteria relating to the growth potential of settlements. The criteria were subjected to a MCDM process involving criteria selection, weighting and normalisation. Two criteria sets, weighting schemes and normalisation methods were considered. Two different classification techniques were also evaluated. A total of 16 scenarios were generated using a newly-developed growth potential PPS (GPPSS). The paper shows how the GPPSS can be used to quantitatively and qualitatively assess the various scenarios and to select the most appropriate solution.

    U2 - 10.1016/j.landusepol.2015.09.014

    DO - 10.1016/j.landusepol.2015.09.014

    M3 - Article

    VL - 50

    SP - 179

    EP - 193

    JO - Land Use Policy

    JF - Land Use Policy

    SN - 0264-8377

    ER -