This thesis is structured as a series of four papers. The first study adopts a Firth's penalized logistic regression model and the second study adopts an Artificial Neural Network for external debt crisis prediction in Indonesia.The results suggest that GOP growth, debt-to-GOP, exchange rate, foreign reserve, and export are major determinants for the debt crisis. The third study examines Indonesia's credit cycles and shows that Indonesia experienced more credit booms than busts. The fourth study investigates the relationship between local government debt and regional growth using an augmented growth model and suggests an inverted U-shaped relationship.
|Qualification||Doctor of Philosophy|
|Award date||18 Feb 2018|
|Publication status||Unpublished - 2018|