Construction of a damage risk model for footwall drifts

Jake Andrijasevich, Hakan Basarir, Johan Wesseloo

Research output: Chapter in Book/Conference paperConference paperpeer-review


Current design of underground mine openings involves a great deal of uncertainty as the geotechnical domains in which mines operate are non-homogenous and highly variable in nature. Current industry practice largely follows a deterministic, Factor of Safety based approach. However, final decisions in mining operations are based on both risk and financial cost, rather than probability distributions or Factor of Safety. The overall aim of the paper is to create a damage risk model for footwall drifts in a mine using the sublevel caving production method. Both numerical and probabilistic outcomes were used to evaluate and assess risk with the aid of a risk matrix. A number of parameters including rock properties, mining-induced stresses and the location of a drift relative to the weakness zone were considered. A special emphasis was placed on the economic consequences of the assessed risk and failure potential, described in terms of drift convergence. Considered economic consequences include rehabilitation, time duration, production loss exposure and delay flexibility, with particular focus applied to shareholder value and public reputation (PR). The associated costs were then compared to find the optimum location for the drift. Keywords: risk-based design, probabilistic design, uncertainty, risk model.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of the First International Conference on Mining Geomechanical Risk
EditorsJohan Wesseloo
Place of PublicationPerth
PublisherAustralian Centre for Geomechanics
ISBN (Electronic)978098763815
Publication statusPublished - 9 Apr 2019
Event1st International Conference on Mining Geomechanical Risk - Novotel Langley Perth Hotel, Perth, Australia
Duration: 9 Apr 201911 Apr 2019


Conference1st International Conference on Mining Geomechanical Risk
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