TY - JOUR
T1 - Climate change maladaptation for health
T2 - Agricultural practice against shifting seasonal rainfall affects snakebite risk for farmers in the tropics
AU - Goldstein, Eyal
AU - Erinjery, Joseph J.
AU - Martin, Gerardo
AU - Kasturiratne, Anuradhani
AU - Ediriweera, Dileepa Senajith
AU - Somaweera, Ruchira
AU - de Silva, Hithanadura Janaka
AU - Diggle, Peter
AU - Lalloo, David G.
AU - Murray, Kris A.
AU - Iwamura, Takuya
N1 - Funding Information:
This work was funded by a Global Challenges Research Fundgrant administered by the UK Medical Research Council ( MP/P024513/1 ). KAM and GM acknowledge funding from the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis (reference MR/R015600/1 ), jointly funded by the UK Medical Research Council ( MRC ) and the UK Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office ( FCDO ), under the MRC / FCDO Concordat agreement and is also part of the EDCTP2 program supported by the European Union ; and acknowledges funding by Community Jameel .
Publisher Copyright:
© 2023
PY - 2023/2/17
Y1 - 2023/2/17
N2 - Snakebite affects more than 1.8 million people annually. Factors explaining snakebite variability include farmers’ behaviors, snake ecology and climate. One unstudied issue is how farmers’ adaptation to novel climates affect their health. Here we examined potential impacts of adaptation on snakebite using individual-based simulations, focusing on strategies meant to counteract major crop yield decline because of changing rainfall in Sri Lanka. For rubber cropping, adaptation led to a 33% increase in snakebite incidence per farmer work hour because of work during risky months, but a 17% decrease in total annual snakebites because of decreased labor in plantations overall. Rice farming adaptation decreased snakebites by 16%, because of shifting labor towards safer months, whereas tea adaptation led to a general increase. These results indicate that adaptation could have both a positive and negative effect, potentially intensified by ENSO. Our research highlights the need for assessing adaptation strategies for potential health maladaptations.
AB - Snakebite affects more than 1.8 million people annually. Factors explaining snakebite variability include farmers’ behaviors, snake ecology and climate. One unstudied issue is how farmers’ adaptation to novel climates affect their health. Here we examined potential impacts of adaptation on snakebite using individual-based simulations, focusing on strategies meant to counteract major crop yield decline because of changing rainfall in Sri Lanka. For rubber cropping, adaptation led to a 33% increase in snakebite incidence per farmer work hour because of work during risky months, but a 17% decrease in total annual snakebites because of decreased labor in plantations overall. Rice farming adaptation decreased snakebites by 16%, because of shifting labor towards safer months, whereas tea adaptation led to a general increase. These results indicate that adaptation could have both a positive and negative effect, potentially intensified by ENSO. Our research highlights the need for assessing adaptation strategies for potential health maladaptations.
KW - Agricultural science
KW - Applied sciences
KW - Food science
KW - Sustainability aspects of food production
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85147586259&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.isci.2023.105946
DO - 10.1016/j.isci.2023.105946
M3 - Article
C2 - 36818294
AN - SCOPUS:85147586259
SN - 2589-0042
VL - 26
JO - Iscience
JF - Iscience
IS - 2
M1 - 105946
ER -