Climate change impact and adaptation policy effectiveness on rice production in Indonesia

Using historical data from 1986 to 2016, this study quantifies the impacts of climate change and measures the effectiveness of the Indonesian government’s climate change adaptation policies on rice production in 14 Indonesian provinces. Generally, the Feasible Generalised Least Squares (FGLS) estimation result showed that rises in temperature and precipitation negatively affected rice production, but relative humidity was beneficial for rice production. At the provincial level, the result of the Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) estimation revealed that West Java was worst affected by climate change. Climate change adaptation policies, including a planting calendar map and farmer insurance, showed positive influence in increasing rice production. Further application of the planting calendar map and reinforced agricultural extension advice are advisable.