Clearance of young parasite forms following treatment of Falciparum malaria in humans : Comparison of three simple mathematical models

Timothy Davis, R.B. Martin

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    7 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    To characterize post-treatment clearance of young forms of Plasmodium falciparum from the blood, three differential equation models, a linear decline, a linear then logarithmic decline, and the Michaelis-Menten (MM) kinetic equation, were fitted to log-transformed serial parasite counts from 30 semi-immune patients with synchronous parasitaemias allocated one of six antimalarial drug regimens. The first two equations were solved analytically. The MM equation was solved numerically using a fifth-order Runge-Kutta method. For each equation, parasite clearance was assumed stochastic and log-transformed parasite counts were assumed to be normally distributed at each time-point. Comparisons between models were by Minimum Akaike Information Criterion Estimate. A constrained MM equation fitted the data at least as well as the other two models in 5 of 6 drug groups and also when pooled data were analysed, providing a single index which could be used in drug efficacy studies in similar situations or as part of more complex models that encompass asynchronous, complicated infections.
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)61-69
    JournalEpidemiology and Infection
    Volume119
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 1997

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