China, India and the contest for the Indo-Pacific

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to describe how China’s rapid growth and increasing resource dependence have changed its relationship with India and their respective defense strategies. In particular, we consider China's Belt and Road Initiative, India's “Act East” policy and the strategic and economic value of the Indian Ocean and South China Sea regions.

Design/methodology/approach
The authors find no econometric evidence of interactions between China and India’s military spending using a Richardson-Baumol arms race model. Likewise, in a cross-county panel data study of military spending, they find that China’s military spending has no independent effect on military spending in other countries. The authors also show that once wage costs and other sources of military inflation are accounted for, the pattern of real defense spending growth is much less intense than is suggested by nominal data. Nevertheless, they show that China has been undertaking intense military modernization with rapidly rising capital-labor ratios in its defense spending.

Findings
The authors find little evidence of a traditional arms race, but also show that China, and to a lesser extent India, have been realigning their military capabilities to these new security risks while maintaining overall military burden on the economy.

Research limitations/implications
Econometric analysis is limited by data availability and is necessarily historical, whereas the security situation is very fluid and may change in the short term.

Practical implications
The paper identifies factors that are likely to influence China and India's attitudes to defense spending in the coming years.

Social implications
The paper finds that there is not an arms race in the traditional sense but may be an arms race in terms of new technologies and military modernization.

Originality/value
This is a very much underexplored topic in economics. The authors take an interdisciplinary approach showing how economics tools can be used to help understand this important issue in international relations.
Original languageEnglish
JournalIndian Growth and Development Review
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Nov 2019

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arms race
defense spending
Military
India
China
modernization
economics
interdisciplinary approach
international relations
panel data
econometrics
inflation
wage
labor
road
wage costs
methodology
fluid
Contests
resource

Cite this

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title = "China, India and the contest for the Indo-Pacific",
abstract = "PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to describe how China’s rapid growth and increasing resource dependence have changed its relationship with India and their respective defense strategies. In particular, we consider China's Belt and Road Initiative, India's “Act East” policy and the strategic and economic value of the Indian Ocean and South China Sea regions.Design/methodology/approachThe authors find no econometric evidence of interactions between China and India’s military spending using a Richardson-Baumol arms race model. Likewise, in a cross-county panel data study of military spending, they find that China’s military spending has no independent effect on military spending in other countries. The authors also show that once wage costs and other sources of military inflation are accounted for, the pattern of real defense spending growth is much less intense than is suggested by nominal data. Nevertheless, they show that China has been undertaking intense military modernization with rapidly rising capital-labor ratios in its defense spending.FindingsThe authors find little evidence of a traditional arms race, but also show that China, and to a lesser extent India, have been realigning their military capabilities to these new security risks while maintaining overall military burden on the economy.Research limitations/implicationsEconometric analysis is limited by data availability and is necessarily historical, whereas the security situation is very fluid and may change in the short term.Practical implicationsThe paper identifies factors that are likely to influence China and India's attitudes to defense spending in the coming years.Social implicationsThe paper finds that there is not an arms race in the traditional sense but may be an arms race in terms of new technologies and military modernization.Originality/valueThis is a very much underexplored topic in economics. The authors take an interdisciplinary approach showing how economics tools can be used to help understand this important issue in international relations.",
author = "Peter Robertson and Jingdong Yuan and {Konara Mudiyanselage}, Harsha",
year = "2019",
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day = "1",
doi = "10.1108/IGDR-06-2019-0055",
language = "English",
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China, India and the contest for the Indo-Pacific. / Robertson, Peter; Yuan, Jingdong; Konara Mudiyanselage, Harsha.

In: Indian Growth and Development Review, 01.11.2019.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - China, India and the contest for the Indo-Pacific

AU - Robertson, Peter

AU - Yuan, Jingdong

AU - Konara Mudiyanselage, Harsha

PY - 2019/11/1

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N2 - PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to describe how China’s rapid growth and increasing resource dependence have changed its relationship with India and their respective defense strategies. In particular, we consider China's Belt and Road Initiative, India's “Act East” policy and the strategic and economic value of the Indian Ocean and South China Sea regions.Design/methodology/approachThe authors find no econometric evidence of interactions between China and India’s military spending using a Richardson-Baumol arms race model. Likewise, in a cross-county panel data study of military spending, they find that China’s military spending has no independent effect on military spending in other countries. The authors also show that once wage costs and other sources of military inflation are accounted for, the pattern of real defense spending growth is much less intense than is suggested by nominal data. Nevertheless, they show that China has been undertaking intense military modernization with rapidly rising capital-labor ratios in its defense spending.FindingsThe authors find little evidence of a traditional arms race, but also show that China, and to a lesser extent India, have been realigning their military capabilities to these new security risks while maintaining overall military burden on the economy.Research limitations/implicationsEconometric analysis is limited by data availability and is necessarily historical, whereas the security situation is very fluid and may change in the short term.Practical implicationsThe paper identifies factors that are likely to influence China and India's attitudes to defense spending in the coming years.Social implicationsThe paper finds that there is not an arms race in the traditional sense but may be an arms race in terms of new technologies and military modernization.Originality/valueThis is a very much underexplored topic in economics. The authors take an interdisciplinary approach showing how economics tools can be used to help understand this important issue in international relations.

AB - PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to describe how China’s rapid growth and increasing resource dependence have changed its relationship with India and their respective defense strategies. In particular, we consider China's Belt and Road Initiative, India's “Act East” policy and the strategic and economic value of the Indian Ocean and South China Sea regions.Design/methodology/approachThe authors find no econometric evidence of interactions between China and India’s military spending using a Richardson-Baumol arms race model. Likewise, in a cross-county panel data study of military spending, they find that China’s military spending has no independent effect on military spending in other countries. The authors also show that once wage costs and other sources of military inflation are accounted for, the pattern of real defense spending growth is much less intense than is suggested by nominal data. Nevertheless, they show that China has been undertaking intense military modernization with rapidly rising capital-labor ratios in its defense spending.FindingsThe authors find little evidence of a traditional arms race, but also show that China, and to a lesser extent India, have been realigning their military capabilities to these new security risks while maintaining overall military burden on the economy.Research limitations/implicationsEconometric analysis is limited by data availability and is necessarily historical, whereas the security situation is very fluid and may change in the short term.Practical implicationsThe paper identifies factors that are likely to influence China and India's attitudes to defense spending in the coming years.Social implicationsThe paper finds that there is not an arms race in the traditional sense but may be an arms race in terms of new technologies and military modernization.Originality/valueThis is a very much underexplored topic in economics. The authors take an interdisciplinary approach showing how economics tools can be used to help understand this important issue in international relations.

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JO - Indian Growth and Development Review

JF - Indian Growth and Development Review

SN - 1753-8254

ER -