Cascading Effects of Rainfall Changes on Hydrological Parameters in a Drying Climate

This study explores the impact of rainfall changes on water resources in South-west Western Australia (SWWA). Non-parametric methods were used to develop a framework for detecting non-stationarity in hydrological parameters. The study reveals that the decline in winter rainfall is the main cause of declining runoff, leading to more hydrological droughts and increased salinity in many rivers. Additionally, the study developed a framework to investigate how changing signals in rainfall propagate through complex catchments and how catchment processes buffer or amplify climate trends. Lastly, the study proposes a more targeted calibration strategy to enhance model performance and minimize prediction uncertainty.