TY - JOUR
T1 - Capturing fine-scale coral dynamics with a metacommunity modelling framework
AU - Cresswell, Anna K.
AU - Haller-Bull, Vanessa
AU - Gonzalez-Rivero, Manuel
AU - Gilmour, James P.
AU - Bozec, Yves Marie
AU - Barneche, Diego R.
AU - Robson, Barbara
AU - Anthony, Kenneth R.N.
AU - Doropoulos, Christopher
AU - Roelfsema, Chris
AU - Lyons, Mitchell
AU - Mumby, Peter J.
AU - Condie, Scott
AU - Lago, Veronique
AU - Ortiz, Juan Carlos
PY - 2024/12
Y1 - 2024/12
N2 - Natural systems exhibit high spatial variability across multiple scales. Models that can capture ecosystem dynamics across space and time by explicitly incorporating major biological mechanisms are crucial, both for management and for ecological insight. In the case of coral reef systems, much focus has been on modelling variability between reefs, despite substantial variability also existing within reefs. We developed C~scape, a coral metacommunity modelling framework that integrates the demography of corals with population-level responses to physical and environmental spatial layers, to facilitate spatiotemporal predictions of coral dynamics across reefs at fine (100s of metres to kilometres) scales. We used satellite-derived habitat maps to modulate community growth spatially, as a proxy for the many interacting physical and environmental factors-e.g., depth, light, wave exposure, temperature, and substrate type-that drive within-reef variability in coral demography. With a case study from the Great Barrier Reef, we demonstrate the model's capability for producing hindcasts of coral cover dynamics and show that overlooking within-reef variability may lead to misleading conclusions about metacommunity dynamics. C~scape provides a valuable framework for exploring a range of management and restoration scenarios at relevant spatial scales.
AB - Natural systems exhibit high spatial variability across multiple scales. Models that can capture ecosystem dynamics across space and time by explicitly incorporating major biological mechanisms are crucial, both for management and for ecological insight. In the case of coral reef systems, much focus has been on modelling variability between reefs, despite substantial variability also existing within reefs. We developed C~scape, a coral metacommunity modelling framework that integrates the demography of corals with population-level responses to physical and environmental spatial layers, to facilitate spatiotemporal predictions of coral dynamics across reefs at fine (100s of metres to kilometres) scales. We used satellite-derived habitat maps to modulate community growth spatially, as a proxy for the many interacting physical and environmental factors-e.g., depth, light, wave exposure, temperature, and substrate type-that drive within-reef variability in coral demography. With a case study from the Great Barrier Reef, we demonstrate the model's capability for producing hindcasts of coral cover dynamics and show that overlooking within-reef variability may lead to misleading conclusions about metacommunity dynamics. C~scape provides a valuable framework for exploring a range of management and restoration scenarios at relevant spatial scales.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85206970065&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1038/s41598-024-73464-y
DO - 10.1038/s41598-024-73464-y
M3 - Article
C2 - 39433778
AN - SCOPUS:85206970065
SN - 2045-2322
VL - 14
JO - Scientific Reports
JF - Scientific Reports
IS - 1
M1 - 24733
ER -