Capturing fine-scale coral dynamics with a metacommunity modelling framework

Anna K. Cresswell, Vanessa Haller-Bull, Manuel Gonzalez-Rivero, James P. Gilmour, Yves Marie Bozec, Diego R. Barneche, Barbara Robson, Kenneth R.N. Anthony, Christopher Doropoulos, Chris Roelfsema, Mitchell Lyons, Peter J. Mumby, Scott Condie, Veronique Lago, Juan Carlos Ortiz

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

Natural systems exhibit high spatial variability across multiple scales. Models that can capture ecosystem dynamics across space and time by explicitly incorporating major biological mechanisms are crucial, both for management and for ecological insight. In the case of coral reef systems, much focus has been on modelling variability between reefs, despite substantial variability also existing within reefs. We developed C~scape, a coral metacommunity modelling framework that integrates the demography of corals with population-level responses to physical and environmental spatial layers, to facilitate spatiotemporal predictions of coral dynamics across reefs at fine (100s of metres to kilometres) scales. We used satellite-derived habitat maps to modulate community growth spatially, as a proxy for the many interacting physical and environmental factors-e.g., depth, light, wave exposure, temperature, and substrate type-that drive within-reef variability in coral demography. With a case study from the Great Barrier Reef, we demonstrate the model's capability for producing hindcasts of coral cover dynamics and show that overlooking within-reef variability may lead to misleading conclusions about metacommunity dynamics. C~scape provides a valuable framework for exploring a range of management and restoration scenarios at relevant spatial scales.

Original languageEnglish
Article number24733
Number of pages18
JournalScientific Reports
Volume14
Issue number1
Early online dateOct 2024
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Dec 2024

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