California sea level rise: Evidence based forecasts vs. model predictions

Albert Parker, Clifford D. Ollier

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

    17 Citations (Scopus)


    The extreme predictions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have been the inspiration of hundreds of papers by local panels proposing ever-increasing alarming messages. The latest analyses are on the effect on the surf spots of California of a tidal range added to a sea level rise of 1.67 m. We show that the sea level rises estimate by a local panel for California as well as the IPCC for the entire world are up to one order of magnitude larger than what is extrapolated from present sea level rise rates and accelerations based on tide gauge data sets (California-8, Permanent Service on Mean Sea Level PSMSL-301, Mitrovica-23, Holgate-9, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA-199 and US-71). These extrapolations are consistent with present temperature warming rates and accelerations of different global temperature data sets (University of Alabama in Huntsville UAH and Remote Sensing Systems RSS) and IPCC Assessment Report (AR) 5 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 sensitivity. As the evidence from the measurements does not support the IPCC expectations or the even more alarming predictions by the local California panel, these claims and the subsequent analyses are too speculative and not suitable for rigorous use in planning or policy making.

    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)198-209
    Number of pages12
    JournalOcean and Coastal Management
    Publication statusPublished - 15 Nov 2017


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