@inproceedings{c08b55656a68421587acfa0c2d383c5b,
title = "Bayes' Postulate for Trinomial Trials",
abstract = "In this paper, we discuss Bayes' postulate and its interpretation. We extend the binomial trial method proposed by de Finetti [1] to trinomial trials, for which we argue that the consideration of equiprobability a priori for the possible outcomes of the trinomial trials implies that the parameter vector has Dirichlet(1,1) as prior. Based on this result, we agree with Stigler [2] in that the notion in Bayes' postulate stating {"}absolutely know nothing{"} is related to the possible outcomes of an experiment and not to {"}non-information{"} about the parameter.",
keywords = "non-informative prior, Bayes-Laplace postulate, de Finetti's method",
author = "Diniz, \{M. A.\} and A. Polpo",
year = "2012",
doi = "10.1063/1.4759594",
language = "English",
series = "AIP Conference Proceedings",
publisher = "American Institute of Physics",
pages = "108--115",
editor = "JM Stern and MD Lauretto and A Polpo and MA Diniz",
booktitle = "XI BRAZILIAN MEETING ON BAYESIAN STATISTICS (EBEB 2012)",
address = "United States",
note = "11th Brazilian Meeting on Bayesian Statistics (EBEB) ; Conference date: 18-03-2012 Through 22-03-2012",
}