Bayes' Postulate for Trinomial Trials

M. A. Diniz, A. Polpo

Research output: Chapter in Book/Conference paperConference paper

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

In this paper, we discuss Bayes' postulate and its interpretation. We extend the binomial trial method proposed by de Finetti [1] to trinomial trials, for which we argue that the consideration of equiprobability a priori for the possible outcomes of the trinomial trials implies that the parameter vector has Dirichlet(1,1) as prior. Based on this result, we agree with Stigler [2] in that the notion in Bayes' postulate stating "absolutely know nothing" is related to the possible outcomes of an experiment and not to "non-information" about the parameter.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationXI BRAZILIAN MEETING ON BAYESIAN STATISTICS (EBEB 2012)
EditorsJM Stern, MD Lauretto, A Polpo, MA Diniz
PublisherAmerican Institute of Physics
Pages108-115
Number of pages8
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2012
Externally publishedYes
Event11th Brazilian Meeting on Bayesian Statistics (EBEB) - São Paulo, Brazil
Duration: 18 Mar 201222 Mar 2012

Publication series

NameAIP Conference Proceedings
PublisherAMER INST PHYSICS
Volume1490
ISSN (Print)0094-243X

Conference

Conference11th Brazilian Meeting on Bayesian Statistics (EBEB)
CountryBrazil
CitySão Paulo
Period18/03/1222/03/12

Cite this

Diniz, M. A., & Polpo, A. (2012). Bayes' Postulate for Trinomial Trials. In JM. Stern, MD. Lauretto, A. Polpo, & MA. Diniz (Eds.), XI BRAZILIAN MEETING ON BAYESIAN STATISTICS (EBEB 2012) (pp. 108-115). (AIP Conference Proceedings; Vol. 1490). American Institute of Physics. https://doi.org/10.1063/1.4759594