Association between meteorological variations and activities of influenza A and B across different climate zones: A multi-region modelling analysis across the globe

Ka Chun Chong, Tsz Cheung Lee, Jian Chen, Wisely S.C. Choy, Mel Krajden, Hamid Jalal, Lance Jennings, Burmaa Alexander, Hong Kai Lee, Pieter Fraaij, Avram Levy, Apple C.M. Yeung, Sarah Tozer, Steven Y.F. Lau, Katherine M. Jia, Julian W.T. Tang, David S.C. Hui, Paul K.S. Chan

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

Objective: To elucidate the effects of meteorological variations on the activity of influenza A and B in 11 sites across different climate regions. Methods: Daily numbers of laboratory-confirmed influenza A and B cases from 2011–2015 were collected from study sites where the corresponding daily mean temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and daily precipitation amount were used for boosted regression trees analysis on the marginal associations and the interaction effects. Results: Cold temperature was a major determinant that favored both influenza A and B in temperate and subtropical sites. Temperature-to-influenza A, but not influenza B, exhibited a U-shape association in subtropical and tropical sites. High relative humidity was also associated with influenza activities but was less consistent with influenza B activity. Compared with relative humidity, absolute humidity had a stronger association - it was negatively associated with influenza B activity in temperate zones, but was positively associated with both influenza A and B in subtropical and tropical zones. Conclusion: The association between meteorological factors and with influenza activity is virus type specific and climate dependent. The heavy influence of temperature on influenza activity across climate zones implies that global warming is likely to have an impact on the influenza burden.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)84-98
JournalJournal of Infection
Volume80
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jan 2020

Fingerprint

Climate
Human Influenza
Humidity
Temperature
Meteorological Concepts
Global Warming
Regression Analysis
Viruses

Cite this

Chong, Ka Chun ; Lee, Tsz Cheung ; Chen, Jian ; Choy, Wisely S.C. ; Krajden, Mel ; Jalal, Hamid ; Jennings, Lance ; Alexander, Burmaa ; Lee, Hong Kai ; Fraaij, Pieter ; Levy, Avram ; Yeung, Apple C.M. ; Tozer, Sarah ; Lau, Steven Y.F. ; Jia, Katherine M. ; Tang, Julian W.T. ; Hui, David S.C. ; Chan, Paul K.S. / Association between meteorological variations and activities of influenza A and B across different climate zones : A multi-region modelling analysis across the globe. In: Journal of Infection. 2020 ; Vol. 80, No. 1. pp. 84-98.
@article{c873f4202a214c568aca6d490c7e4ed0,
title = "Association between meteorological variations and activities of influenza A and B across different climate zones: A multi-region modelling analysis across the globe",
abstract = "Objective: To elucidate the effects of meteorological variations on the activity of influenza A and B in 11 sites across different climate regions. Methods: Daily numbers of laboratory-confirmed influenza A and B cases from 2011–2015 were collected from study sites where the corresponding daily mean temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and daily precipitation amount were used for boosted regression trees analysis on the marginal associations and the interaction effects. Results: Cold temperature was a major determinant that favored both influenza A and B in temperate and subtropical sites. Temperature-to-influenza A, but not influenza B, exhibited a U-shape association in subtropical and tropical sites. High relative humidity was also associated with influenza activities but was less consistent with influenza B activity. Compared with relative humidity, absolute humidity had a stronger association - it was negatively associated with influenza B activity in temperate zones, but was positively associated with both influenza A and B in subtropical and tropical zones. Conclusion: The association between meteorological factors and with influenza activity is virus type specific and climate dependent. The heavy influence of temperature on influenza activity across climate zones implies that global warming is likely to have an impact on the influenza burden.",
keywords = "Humidity, Influenza, Seasonality, Subtropic, Temperate, Temperature, Tropic",
author = "Chong, {Ka Chun} and Lee, {Tsz Cheung} and Jian Chen and Choy, {Wisely S.C.} and Mel Krajden and Hamid Jalal and Lance Jennings and Burmaa Alexander and Lee, {Hong Kai} and Pieter Fraaij and Avram Levy and Yeung, {Apple C.M.} and Sarah Tozer and Lau, {Steven Y.F.} and Jia, {Katherine M.} and Tang, {Julian W.T.} and Hui, {David S.C.} and Chan, {Paul K.S.}",
year = "2020",
month = "1",
doi = "10.1016/j.jinf.2019.09.013",
language = "English",
volume = "80",
pages = "84--98",
journal = "Journal of Infection.",
issn = "0163-4453",
publisher = "W.B. Saunders Ltd",
number = "1",

}

Chong, KC, Lee, TC, Chen, J, Choy, WSC, Krajden, M, Jalal, H, Jennings, L, Alexander, B, Lee, HK, Fraaij, P, Levy, A, Yeung, ACM, Tozer, S, Lau, SYF, Jia, KM, Tang, JWT, Hui, DSC & Chan, PKS 2020, 'Association between meteorological variations and activities of influenza A and B across different climate zones: A multi-region modelling analysis across the globe' Journal of Infection, vol. 80, no. 1, pp. 84-98. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinf.2019.09.013

Association between meteorological variations and activities of influenza A and B across different climate zones : A multi-region modelling analysis across the globe. / Chong, Ka Chun; Lee, Tsz Cheung; Chen, Jian; Choy, Wisely S.C.; Krajden, Mel; Jalal, Hamid; Jennings, Lance; Alexander, Burmaa; Lee, Hong Kai; Fraaij, Pieter; Levy, Avram; Yeung, Apple C.M.; Tozer, Sarah; Lau, Steven Y.F.; Jia, Katherine M.; Tang, Julian W.T.; Hui, David S.C.; Chan, Paul K.S.

In: Journal of Infection, Vol. 80, No. 1, 01.2020, p. 84-98.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - Association between meteorological variations and activities of influenza A and B across different climate zones

T2 - A multi-region modelling analysis across the globe

AU - Chong, Ka Chun

AU - Lee, Tsz Cheung

AU - Chen, Jian

AU - Choy, Wisely S.C.

AU - Krajden, Mel

AU - Jalal, Hamid

AU - Jennings, Lance

AU - Alexander, Burmaa

AU - Lee, Hong Kai

AU - Fraaij, Pieter

AU - Levy, Avram

AU - Yeung, Apple C.M.

AU - Tozer, Sarah

AU - Lau, Steven Y.F.

AU - Jia, Katherine M.

AU - Tang, Julian W.T.

AU - Hui, David S.C.

AU - Chan, Paul K.S.

PY - 2020/1

Y1 - 2020/1

N2 - Objective: To elucidate the effects of meteorological variations on the activity of influenza A and B in 11 sites across different climate regions. Methods: Daily numbers of laboratory-confirmed influenza A and B cases from 2011–2015 were collected from study sites where the corresponding daily mean temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and daily precipitation amount were used for boosted regression trees analysis on the marginal associations and the interaction effects. Results: Cold temperature was a major determinant that favored both influenza A and B in temperate and subtropical sites. Temperature-to-influenza A, but not influenza B, exhibited a U-shape association in subtropical and tropical sites. High relative humidity was also associated with influenza activities but was less consistent with influenza B activity. Compared with relative humidity, absolute humidity had a stronger association - it was negatively associated with influenza B activity in temperate zones, but was positively associated with both influenza A and B in subtropical and tropical zones. Conclusion: The association between meteorological factors and with influenza activity is virus type specific and climate dependent. The heavy influence of temperature on influenza activity across climate zones implies that global warming is likely to have an impact on the influenza burden.

AB - Objective: To elucidate the effects of meteorological variations on the activity of influenza A and B in 11 sites across different climate regions. Methods: Daily numbers of laboratory-confirmed influenza A and B cases from 2011–2015 were collected from study sites where the corresponding daily mean temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and daily precipitation amount were used for boosted regression trees analysis on the marginal associations and the interaction effects. Results: Cold temperature was a major determinant that favored both influenza A and B in temperate and subtropical sites. Temperature-to-influenza A, but not influenza B, exhibited a U-shape association in subtropical and tropical sites. High relative humidity was also associated with influenza activities but was less consistent with influenza B activity. Compared with relative humidity, absolute humidity had a stronger association - it was negatively associated with influenza B activity in temperate zones, but was positively associated with both influenza A and B in subtropical and tropical zones. Conclusion: The association between meteorological factors and with influenza activity is virus type specific and climate dependent. The heavy influence of temperature on influenza activity across climate zones implies that global warming is likely to have an impact on the influenza burden.

KW - Humidity

KW - Influenza

KW - Seasonality

KW - Subtropic

KW - Temperate

KW - Temperature

KW - Tropic

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85073572179&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/j.jinf.2019.09.013

DO - 10.1016/j.jinf.2019.09.013

M3 - Article

VL - 80

SP - 84

EP - 98

JO - Journal of Infection.

JF - Journal of Infection.

SN - 0163-4453

IS - 1

ER -