Assessment of the tropical cyclone-induced risk on offshore wind turbines under climate change

Assessing the risk of tropical cyclones (TCs) to offshore wind turbines (OWTs) can be a difficult task, mainly due to the lack of historical data. This study addresses this challenge by creating a synthetic TC hazard dataset that models 10,000 years of TC activity and developing a risk assessment framework based on this dataset. The present work uses full-track simulation to generate synthetic TCs and then employs the parametric wind field model and Mike 21 spectral wave model to simulate the corresponding wind and wave fields driven by the synthetic TCs. Additionally, the effect of climate change is incorporated into the synthetic TCs using a global climate model. A reliability analysis methodology is developed to measure the failure probability of OWTs. The proposed framework is applied to four representative sites in the South China Sea. The results indicate that the future climate will pose a greater risk for OWTs due to the increased intensity of TC-induced hazards. Additionally, proper maintenance of the yaw control system can effectively improve the safety of OWTs. The proposed framework can aid in enhancing the resilience of offshore wind energy systems.